Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 AM ADT MON SEP 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...

NAM/GFS 6 HR PROGS AT MON/06Z APPEAR TO BE WELL HANDLING
THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 50N/176W. CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 07Z IS 984-985 MB AS LOW PASSES OVER SEVERAL SURFACE
REPORTING SITES. RAPID DEEPENING ALSO INDICATED BY SHADING
IN GOES IR LOOP. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE LOW WILL BOMB DOWN TO
AROUND 965 MB NEAR 58N/175W...ABSORBING THE EXISTING 980 MB
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING. FRINGE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND
INTO PKZ200-PKZ210 THIS EVENING. LOW CENTER POSITIONS FROM
GFS/NAM BEGIN TO DIFFER AFTER 18-24 HOURS...BUT BIG PICTURE
WIND FIELDS OVER THE WEST COAST ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

ALOFT...RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHTS 570-576 DAM...MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
COULD REACH +10C...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING 70F AT
SOME SPOTS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF LIKELY IN NORTON SOUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WEAKENING BOMB LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. LOCALIZED
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
SHORE OF NORTON SOUND. SOUTH WINDS MAXING OUT AT AROUND 40
KT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX
SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTON SOUND WEST OF CAPE
DARBY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8-11 FEET...WITH LOWER SEAS TO
THE EAST. ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON SOUND...MAXIMUM
STORM SURGE WILL BE NEAR 4 FEET MID DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CHINOOK WINDS IN AND NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING...CONTINUING AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVEL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE. NAM12 INDICATING LOCAL SURFACE WINDS OF 50+ KT
TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MIN
RH APPROACHES 30% IN SOME SPOTS.

MAX TEMP/MIN RH FOR SELECTED SITES

                    MON      TUE      WED
                    T  RH    T  RH    T  RH
FAIRBANKS           65 42%   70 32%   64 40%
DELTA JUNCTION      61 52%   70 30%   65 34%
NORTHWAY            55 64%   67 34%   63 38%
DENALI PARK HQ      61 40%   67 28%   60 38%
EAGLE               62 60%   69 34%   68 36%
FORT YUKON          60 52%   64 38%   62 40%
BETTLES             50 52%   62 44%   59 50%
TANANA              64 46%   65 42%   56 64%
NENANA              63 50%   66 42%   61 42%

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

RF SEP 07