Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 AM ADT WED JUL 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 48 HOURS
AND DO NOT DIFFER TOO MUCH EVEN AFTER THAT TO 60 HOURS.

TODAY IS AGAIN ANOTHER DAY OF FIND THE CONVECTION AREA. BEST
APPROACH IS TO FOLLOW THE THETA E RIDGE. TODAY THAT SEEMS TO BE
FROM NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER SOUTH OF CHICKEN TO NEAR GALENA AND
THEN ON UP INTO NEAR AMBLER AND EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE OF ZONE
218. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING UP
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER TO NEAR ARCTIC VILLAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DECENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN TO LIE WEST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME
DECENT QPF ALONG THE WEST COAST ZONES FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NORTHEASTWARD TO
NEAR BARTER ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ENABLE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO SET UP ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE 500 HEIGHTS FALL A BIT AND THEN BEGIN TO RISE. BUT
ALTHOUGH THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN IT IS NOT MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL AND THEREFORE SHOULD NOT IMPEDE CONVECTION THAT MUCH.

WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE BERING SEA AND THE LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD
TO THE BERING STRAIT...WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO MARINE
ADVISORY LEVEL OVER ZONE 225 AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
ZONES 210 AND 220 AS WELL LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. STRATUS IS JUST OFF THE COAST ON THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BRING A PORTION OF THAT INTO THE COASTAL AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF JUL 07