Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 041144
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
344 AM ADT WED JUL 4 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-050100-
344 AM ADT WED JUL 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1022 MB HIGH 100 NM NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT
WEST AND WEAKEN TO 1019 MB BY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ200-050100-
NORTON SOUND-
344 AM ADT WED JUL 4 2007

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-050100-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
344 AM ADT WED JUL 4 2007

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-050100-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
344 AM ADT WED JUL 4 2007

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-050100-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
344 AM ADT WED JUL 4 2007

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RT/DJH JUL 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
116 PM ADT TUE JUL 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...

A 576 DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KOTZEBUE AS OF 12Z BRINGING
STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH AND
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA BRINGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THETA-E RIDGING OVER ZONES
223/224 AND 226. HIGHER DEW POINTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT FAIRBANKS SHOWS TWO SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS...ONE FROM 750-760 MB AND ANOTHER ONE BETWEEN
535-540 MB. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 80-81
WOULD BREAK THE LOWER CAP AND RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CAPE...OF THE ORDER OF 1000-1200 JOULES.

HIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RUN
FROM THE NORTHWAY AREA WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TO
THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...WITH A SECONDARY WEAKER TROUGH EXTENDING
THE GALENA AREA NORTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
THE MOST CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR ALONG AND NEAR THE THERMAL TROUGH IN AREAS WHERE
THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC. ISOLATED THUNDER
IS LIKELY IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD AS THE SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY CYCLONIC. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR.
THE MAIN THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO LIE NORTHWAY-FAIRBANKS-TANANA-SOUTHWESTWARD...WITH A WEAKER
SECONDARY TROUGH FROM THE TANANA AREA NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DEW POINT AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
INTERIOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S. THE DRIEST AIR IS
OVER THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MINIMUM RH TODAY WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT IN THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JK/CF JUL 07