Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
558 AM ADT FRI JUN 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
MODELS AT 500 MB INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
IT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE ALASKA RANGE BUT COOL SOME IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION MOVE BACK INTO THAT AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING BACK TO THE EAST.

A WEAK LOW OVER NORTON SOUND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...
GFS AND NAM MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE
NAM MODEL DOES APPEAR TO BE HEAVIER THEN EXPECTED ON PRECIPITATION
AND THUS THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL. LOW PRESSURE NEAR ARCTIC
VILLAGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE WEAK LOW IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY. A FRONT JUST NORTH
OF THE ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON REPLACING THE CLEAR
SKIES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR TODAY IS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM A DENALI TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE LINE EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ZONES 221
AND 225 TODAY ONLY. THIS AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PAIN- PAFA-PFYU EASTWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM SW ALASKA TO
THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC SLOPE WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS DEVELOPING IN ZONES 225-226 FRIDAY
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY...THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ZONE 223 SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR
AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. &&

RL JUN 07