Small Craft Advisory 182, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
520 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE OLD LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING ESPECIALLY THE WEST COAST ZONES
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW UP IN THE CHUKCHI SEA AND IS CONTINUING
TO FILL AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY.  BY 00Z SUNDAY THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 980 MB
ABOUT 300 NM SOUTH OF ATKA.  BY 3 PM SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE
NEAR ST. MATTHEW ISLAND AS A 970 MB LOW.

WEST COAST: THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW WILL BE FELT ALONG THE
WEST COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY.  EXPECT BOTH SNOW AND WIND TO BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS ZONES 211 THROUGH 215...AND WILL ISSUE WINTER
STORM WATCHES/BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HILLS. THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY THE DAYSHIFT...BUT AS
THE BULK OF THE SNOW AND WIND WILL BE 4TH PERIOD AND BEYOND IN
THIS AREA WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ALLOWING THE NEXT SHIFT TO GET
ANOTHER LOOK.

THE OTHER CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE FOR A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WIND IN THE ALASKA RANGE.  THE GFS/NAM RAMP UP THE 700MB
WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 60 KTS.  IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WIND MAY WELL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WATCH ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND GALE WARNINGS SUNDAY FOR THE NORTON SOUND OUT THROUGH ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND.

ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...THE WEATHER WILL ON THE QUIET SIDE INTO
SUNDAY.  AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE BERING SEA MONDAY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA.  BRISK WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST...SPREADING EAST ON
MONDAY.

FOR THE INTERIOR...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PASSES IN ZONES 225 AND 226 TO KEEP A WIND ADVISORY OUT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING TO 50 TO 55 MPH THROUGH SOME OF
THE PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER
AND WEAKENS THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
AROUND NOON. ASIDE FROM THE WIND CONCERNS IN THE PASSES THE
WEATHER WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
IN PART TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. THERE MAYBE A LITTLE SNOW
AROUND AT TIMES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WITH LITTLE/NO SNOW IN THE FAR EAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT TOWARD THE
BERING STRAIGHT ON TUESDAY. THERE MAYBE SOME LINGERING WIND AND
SEAS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
STORM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

&&

DEC 07