Small Craft Advisory 178, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
534 AM AST MON DEC 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG HIGH OVER ARCTIC OCEAN WEAKENING. COLD LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA MOVING TO MCGRATH 06Z TUE AND TO BERING STRAIT
18Z TUE CONTINUING WEST INTO RUSSIA WHILE ALLOWING WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN WEST COAST AND INTERIOR.
COMPLEX LOW OVER KAMCHATKA WILL SPIN OFF A SINGLE LOW THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE BERING SEA TO WESTERN SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
00Z FRI.

SURFACE...1044 MB HIGH OVER NORTHWEST CANADA PERSISTING INTO TUE
THEN WEAKENING. 976 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING TO A TROUGH FROM UNALAKLEET TO DELTA JUNCTION 12Z
WED. 954 MB LOW MOVING TO SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA 12Z WED THEN TO
100 MILES WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND 06Z THU WEAKENING TO 964
MB. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION MOVING OVER WEST COAST THU AM...OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR THU PM AND OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR THU NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHORT TERM AND MEDIUM TERM. GFS AND
ECMWF STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF LOW MOVING INTO BERING
SEA BUT SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS PICKING UP SOME TODAY THEN DIMINISHING TUE
NIGHT AS HIGH OVER CANADA BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

WESTERN ALASKA...BLUSTERY TODAY IN MANY ZONES WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TUE. SNOW
LIKELY ZONE 214 WED FROM OCCLUSION MOVING IN WITH BERING LOW.
WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN...THOUGH FROM SOUTHEAST.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR....HAVE CONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AS SYNOPTIC SITUATION NEAR THE SURFACE NOT CHANGING
MUCH NEXT 18 HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME BY TUE AM BUT
LOCAL WINDS BELOW HAZARD LEVELS CONTINUING INTO WED. TROUGH
MOVING OVER ALASKA RANGE TUE NIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PASSES...BUT AIRMASS WILL HAVE WARMED UP ONLY SOMEWHAT. COLDEST
TEMPS EXPECTED TUE AM WITH OVERALL LESS WIND...THEN GRADUALLY
WARMING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WED- THU IN ADVANCE OF
BERING LOW. CHANCE OF SNOW THU NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF BERING
OCCLUSION MOVE THROUGH AND TURN FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...THE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE COAST SOUTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT...WHICH WILL ELEVATE WATER LEVELS AND MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SURF TO ZONES 211 AND THE BERING STRAIT
COAST OF 213.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-
AKZ225-AKZ226.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ226.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ219-AKZ221.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ235.

&&

JL DEC 07