Small Craft Advisory 177, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
237 PM AST SUN DEC 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL NORTH NOW CENTERED NORTH OF BARROW..WITH MAJOR AXIS ROTATING
ANTI-CYCLONICALLY. SURGE OF COLD POOL THAT HAS BEEN SITTING SRN
NWT/YUKON/NORTHERN BC REGION MOVING WEST. THE LEADING EDGE NOT
WELL DEFINED IN THE PRESSURE/ISSALOBARIC FIELDS BUT DOES SHOW UP
REASONABLE WELL AS A WIND SURGE THAT BREAKS THE INVERSION IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS COLD POOL WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE WEST
COAST NEXT 18 HOURS.

THIS COLD SHOT WILL BE QUITE TRANSIENT THOUGH AS JET MAX CURRENTLY
COMING ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN FORECAST DEEPEN INTO A MAJOR BEING SEA
STORM BY LATE TUE..BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 950 MB NEAR ADAK BEFORE
WEAKENING STARTING WED. THIS STORM WILL BRING MARITIME WARM AIR
BACK ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT RIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.

WIND ADVISORIES VERIFYING ONLY LOCALLY THUS FAR..BUT GRADIENT
FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT MORE...SO NO CHANGES. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES Z222 EASTWARD ARE MARGINAL BUT WE WILL LEAVE THESE TWO.
WE HAVE EXTENDED HEADLINE WINDS TO WEST COAST ZONES 212 AND 214.

NORTH SLOPE WINDS OCCASIONALLY NEAR HEADLINE CRITERIA. POOL OF
COLD AIR REMAINS SOUTH OF BROOKS RANGE..WITH WARM HIGH
DOMINATING...SO EXCEPT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND...TEMPS
REMAIN QUITE MILD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...ALL MODELS BRING
970 SOMETHING STORM INTO THE NORTHERN BEING SEA ON THU. GFS
CONSISTENTLY TAKING THIS STORM BASICALLY DUE NORTH JUST EAST OF
180...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS WRANGEL ISLAND...WHILE THE 12Z ECMF
THE STORM EAST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AND THEN UP THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT. EITHER TRACK...BUT ESPECIALLY THE GFS...IS A DECENT
COASTAL FLOOD SCENARIO FOR SEWARD PEN COAST WALES SOUTHWARD AND
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...THOUGH OTHER FACTORS ARE NOT IDEAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ219-AKZ221.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RT DEC 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1037 AM AST SUN DEC 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KEYSTONE RIDGE          64.92N 148.27W
12/02/2007  E40 MPH                             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

RT