Small Craft Advisory 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
440 AM ADT WED JUN 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG BLOCKING HIGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC OCEAN INTO THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER
THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN DEEPENING
SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TODAY...MOVING TO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A TREND TO CLOUDY WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

NAM AND GFS MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE AREA COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF AMOUNTS...A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN ZONE 224 IN LEFTOVERS FROM EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEDRO DOME
WSW-88D COVERAGE AREA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN A
MOISTURE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE UPPER HIGH...
MOSTLY IN ZONES 218-219-220-222-224.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO FORECAST INCREASING EAST WINDS
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT THE RECENT TRACK RECORD HAS NOT
BEEN VERY GOOD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS DEVELOPING IN ZONES 223-225-226
LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD ADVISORY ONGOING FOR THE COLVILLE RIVER DELTA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF JUN 07