Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK59 PAFG 090413
SVSAFG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
809 PM ADT SUN JUL 8 2007

AKZ221-222-090419-
/X.EXP.PAFG.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070709T0415Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR AK-MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AK-
809 PM ADT SUN JUL 8 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR EXPIRES AT 815 PM ADT...

THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MURPHY DOME MAY ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL APPEAR TO HAVE MOVED WEST OVER MINTO 
FLATS AND LARGE HAIL IS NO LONGER EXPECTED OVER INHABITED AREAS.

LAT...LON 6484 14825 6503 14803 6517 14870 6489 14886

$$

JB

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
516 AM ADT SUN JUL 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE SUPER LONG LIVED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE
NORTH BERING SEA TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
AND THE GFS AND NAM MODELS BOTH FORECAST LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND THEN TO MOVE UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
UNTIL THERE IS A CHANGE IN AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BRISKLY. THE ALASKA LIGHTNING DETECTION
SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP NEARLY 6000 STRIKES SINCE 600 AM SATURDAY.
THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS AN INFLUX OF GULF OF ALASKA AIR OVER THE
INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THIS SHOULD COOL DOWN THE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION WHICH HAS GONE ON OVER THE INTERIOR ALL MONTH.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...WHERE IT CONTINUES TO RESIDE.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION HAS MAXED OUT BETWEEN 0600 GMT AND 1200
GMT...AND THEN CONTINUED UNTIL ROUGHLY 1400 GMT.

A NEW FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHING OSTROV VRANGELYA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN A SOLID DECK OF CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CHUKCHI SEA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INFLUX OF
OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN TO THE WEST ARCTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHIFT IN THE WIND TO ONSHORE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
EVENTUALLY BROUGHT IN THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG...THOUGH THIS TOOK A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN CAN EASILY BE
EXPLAINED. THOUGH THE INLAND PORTION OF THE ARCTIC WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN SUNNY THE CREST IN TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST IS NOW
DEFINITIVELY PAST HISTORY.

THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION REMAINS FINE AND CLEAR AND THERE IS NO
END TO THIS IN SIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST SEWARD PENINSULA MAY
FOG IN LATER TODAY. DOWN OVER NORTON SOUND LOW STRATUS COVERS
NEARLY ALL OF THAT REGION. A SHIFT IN THE WIND TO NORTH/NORTHWEST
COULD BRING DRAMATIC CLEARING THERE BY MID DAY TODAY. IT WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR DOWN ON THE YUKON DELTA...WHICH COULD STAY
IFR UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...EASTERLY SMALL CRAFT/BRISK
WIND ADVISORY CAPE HALKETT TO DEMARCATION POINT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY
AND MONDAY. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE THE KOBUK AND NOATAK
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA HAVE HAD
ANY RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SOUTH OF FORT YUKON OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS IS PRESUMED TO
HAVE BROUGHT UP STREAM LEVELS IN HEADWATER AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY.
SINCE THE RAIN BEARING STORMS HAVE NEARLY ALL SUBSIDED IN THE PAST
6 HOURS THE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS IS ON ITS WAY OUT OF
HEADWATER AREAS INTO THE MAIN COURSES OF LARGER STREAMS AND
RIVERS. DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STEESE HIGHWAY THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNING FOR THAT AREA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR
BIRCH CREEK DOWN TO CIRCLE CITY. DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS ANOTHER
AREA OF THUNDER STORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL BIRCH CREEK BASIN SO THIS MAY BRING WATER LEVELS UP EVEN
FURTHER...THOUGH THIS ADDITIONAL RISE WILL BE SMALL COMPARED TO
WHAT HAS OCCURRED ALREADY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WARNING FOR BIRCH CREEK UPSTREAM FROM CIRCLE CITY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 215 PM TODAY.

&&

TF JUL 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
615 PM ADT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             8 W TWO RIVERS          64.87N 147.17W
07/08/2007  M0.25 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL PLUS HEAVY RAIN

0533 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 W TWO RIVERS          64.87N 147.17W
07/08/2007  M0.26 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN 15 MINUTES

&&

PWEIMER