Alert archive / Alaska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

June 17, 2007

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 17, 2007, 5:48 PM AKDT. It took effect at Jun 17, 2007, 10:48 PM AKDT. It was in force for 20 days. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 17, 2007, 5:48 PM AKDT (01:48 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 17, 2007, 10:48 PM AKDT
Expired
Jul 7, 2007, 9:00 PM AKDT
In force
20 days
Issued by
NWS Fairbanks, AK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fairbanks, (PFAI), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fairbanks, at 00:00Z on 2007-06-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 379 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fairbanks, at 00:00Z on 2007-06-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
379 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2008 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000
WUAK59 PAFG 180653
SVRAFG
AKZ222-180730-
/X.NEW.PAFG.SV.W.0002.070618T0648Z-070618T0730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1048 PM ADT SUN JUN 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AREA OF ALASKA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TWO RIVERS...PLEASANT VALLEY...

* UNTIL 1130 PM ADT

* AT 1043 PM ADT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH POLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HEAVY 
RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A TRAINED SPOTTER IN NORTH POLE 
OBSERVED PEA SIZED HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE CHENA LAKES 
FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT...OR ABOUT 3 MILES EAST OF  NORTH POLE...AND 
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CHENA HOT 
SPRINGS AND NORDALE ROADS INTERSECTION BY 1110 PM. THIS WILL IMPACT 
THE BADGER ROAD AND NORDALE ROAD AREAS, AND THE CHENA HOT SPRINGS 
ROAD AREA NEAR THE NORDALE ROAD INTERSECTION. PEOPLE ARE URDGE TO 
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDATELY IN STRONG BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS. THE STORM SHOULD PASS BY 1130 PM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WELLER SCHOOL BY 1130 PM ADT...

LAT...LON 6471 14671 6495 14695 6488 14767 6468 14712

$$

BRADER
3 follow-up statements
000 
WWAK59 PAFG 180722
SVSAFG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1115 PM ADT SUN JUN 17 2007

AKZ222-180725-
/X.CAN.PAFG.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070618T0730Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AK-
1115 PM ADT SUN JUN 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 6471 14671 6495 14695 6488 14767 6468 14712

$$

FATHAUER
000
WUAK59 PAFG 080430
SVRAFG
AKZ220-224-080500-
/X.NEW.PAFG.SV.W.0002.070708T0427Z-070708T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
827 PM ADT SAT JUL 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AREA OF ALASKA...
  YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS AREA OF ALASKA...

* UNTIL 900 PM ADT

* AT 821 PM ADT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED 
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS 
LOCATED FROM 15 MILES WEST OF CENTRAL TO TWELVEMILE SUMMIT...AND   
MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE STEESE HIGHWAY BETWEEN 
EAGLE AND TWELVE MILE SUMMITS. 

LAT...LON 6557 14453 6557 14609 6517 14586 6509 14536

$$

JB
000 
WWAK59 PAFG 080459
SVSAFG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
857 PM ADT SAT JUL 7 2007

AKZ220-224-080507-
/X.EXP.PAFG.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070708T0500Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS AK-
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AK-
857 PM ADT SAT JUL 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS EXPIRES AT
900 PM ADT...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BETWEEN TWELVE MILE SUMMIT AND EAGLE SUMMIT
BUT ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN. WEATHER RADAR INDICATES AREAS OF HAIL  
CONTINUES BUT THE HAIL HAS BECOME SMALLER AS THE STORMS ARE 
WEAKENING.


LAT...LON 6557 14453 6557 14609 6517 14586 6509 14536

$$

JB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 17, 9:37 AM AKDT, 8 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 9:37 AM AKDT, 8 hours 11 minutes before
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
237 PM ADT SUN JUN 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND
EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS OF ZONE 220
AND THE NORTHEAST PART OF ZONE 224...WHICH ARE UNDER THE HIGH
CENTER. CONVECTION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN
ZONE 224-ZONES 221-222-223-225-226.

SOME STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR. THE MORE
STABLE AIR WILL EXPAND FARTHER TO THE WEST TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTER MOVES TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

CONVECTION MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE. CONVECTION TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED TO A NARROW STRIP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND ALSO ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE CREST.

GOES VIS LOOP IS SHOWING THAT A STRIP OF STRATUS OVER
MARINES ARE 240 AND 245 IS HAS EVAPORATED SOME UNDER
DAYTIME SOLAR HEATING...BUT SOME STILL REMAINS AND IT
CAN BE SEEN BETTER ON THE FOG PRODUCT LOOP. THIS AREA
OF STRATUS IS CREEPING SLOWLY WESTWARD. A MUCH LARGER BLOB OF
STRATUS LIES FARTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE BEAUFORT SEA...EAST OF 150W.
THIS STRATUS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. BARROW AND DEADHORSE AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR TODAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME STRATUS TONIGHT.

ZONES 201 AND 202 MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AS LEFTOVERS FROM CONVECTION IN THE BROOKS RANGE MOVE NORTHWARD...
STEERED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LIGHTING STRIKE WAS DETECTED
IN ZONE 201 YESTERDAY EVENING.

COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA. TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS UPPER LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE ECMWF OPTING
FOR A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGESTED ONLY MINIMUM EFFECT
ON THE ARCTIC COAST WITH THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE CIRCULATION
JUST BARELY MAKING IT TO THE ARCTIC COAST.

MID RANGE UPPER PROGS FOR THE INTERIOR ALSO DIFFER...GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING A LIGHT BUT MAINLY CYCLONIC WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BEAUFORT SEA LOW. ECMF
CONTINUES RIDGING...BUT WITH W WORM-IN-THE-APPLE DEEPENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST THURSDAY...MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FRIDAY.

IN GENERAL...CONFIDENCE IN THE MID RANGE FORECASTS IS LOW
DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

RF JUN 07

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 17, 11:52 AM AKDT, 5 hours 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
452 PM ADT SUN JUN 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             5 NE FAIRBANKS          64.87N 147.74W
06/17/2007  U0.25 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3/16 OF AN INCH FELL.

0449 PM     HAIL             5 NE FAIRBANKS          64.87N 147.74W
06/17/2007  E0.25 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER REPORTED 3/16 OF AN INCH HAIL.

&&

PWEIMER
Local storm report, Jun 17, 12:06 PM AKDT, 5 hours 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
506 PM ADT SUN JUN 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             5 NE FAIRBANKS          64.87N 147.74W
06/17/2007  U0.25 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3/16 OF AN INCH FELL.

0449 PM     HAIL             5 NE FAIRBANKS          64.87N 147.74W
06/17/2007  E0.25 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER REPORTED 3/16 OF AN INCH HAIL.

0501 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 S FAIRBANKS           64.74N 147.86W
06/17/2007  M0.00 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            .30 IN 10 MIN

0501 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SE FAIRBANKS          64.76N 147.74W
06/17/2007  E0.00 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            .37 RAIN IN 10 MIN

0501 PM     HAIL             4 SE FAIRBANKS          64.77N 147.76W
06/17/2007  M0.25 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1/10 OF AN INCH HAIL.

&&

PWEIMER
Local storm report, Jun 17, 12:08 PM AKDT, 5 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
508 PM ADT SUN JUN 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     LIGHTNING        4 S FAIRBANKS           64.76N 147.86W
06/17/2007                                      AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STRIKE 2 MILES FROM IARC BUILDING.

&&

PWEIMER
Local storm report, Jun 17, 12:16 PM AKDT, 5 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
516 PM ADT SUN JUN 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SE FAIRBANKS          64.77N 147.76W
06/17/2007  M0.45 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL IN 20 MINUTES

&&

PWEIMER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 17, 5:37 PM AKDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAFG20 days
Jun 18, 9:48 AM AKDTRed Flag WarningAFG3 days

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Alaska, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.