Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 032310
RFWAFG

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
310 PM ADT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...

AKZ220-040600-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070504T0600Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
310 PM ADT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT AFTER 
10 PM THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AKZ221-040600-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070504T0600Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
310 PM ADT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT AFTER 
10 PM THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AKZ222-040600-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070504T0600Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
310 PM ADT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT AFTER 
10 PM THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

MARPKA MAY 07

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 040536
RFWAFG

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
936 PM ADT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR...

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...

AKZ220>222-040645-
/X.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070504T0600Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
936 PM ADT THU MAY 3 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
523 AM ADT THU MAY 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...RATHER WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA BUT CHANGE IS AT LAST IN THE WIND.

THE AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND
UNSTABLE. ONE INDEX OFTEN USED TO DETERMINE INSTABILITY IS THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 850 HPA AND 500 HPA PRESSURE
LEVELS...THIS IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5000 AND 18000 FEET. YESTERDAY
AFTERNOONS INDEX AT FAIRBANKS WAS 35 DEGREES DEGREES
CELSIUS...EQUAL TO THE HIGHEST SUCH VALUE EVER RECORDED HERE.
ONLY THE GREAT DRYNESS OF THE AIR PREVENTED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FORMING.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS HEADED UP TO
THE EASTERN INTERIOR...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING IN A SUBSTANTIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FAR IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FROM THIS. HEAVY RAIN IN MAY IS RARE
HERE. BUT THE DROUGHT OVER THE INTERIOR HAS A CHANCE TO COME TO AN
END. AS A SIDE NOTE...THE PRECIPITATION AT FAIRBANKS FROM
SEPTEMBER TO APRIL WAS ONLY ABOUT HALF OF THE NORMAL TOTAL. THE
SNOWFALL HERE THIS PAST WINTER WAS THE THIRD LOWEST IN A CENTURY.

THUS IS THE CHANGE COMING FROM THE EAST. THE OTHER SIDE IS CHANGE
FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR SOME TIME. AS LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN SEA OF OKHOTSK DRIFTS NORTH...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE CHUKCHI SEA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COINCIDING WITH THIS...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL BREAK OUT OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA COAST...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE A
CHANGE FROM THE RECENT INLAND SUNSHINE AND INTERMITTENT FOG ON
THE COAST.

THE ARCTIC COAST CONTINUES TO BE ENVELOPED IN LOW CLOUDS...
FLURRIES AND FOG. THE HEIGHT OF CLOUD BASES UP THERE HAS BEEN
QUITE STEADY...NEAR 1500 FEET...FROM BARROW TO THE CANADA
BORDER...FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HAS BEEN A RESULT OF THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FROM LEADS IN NEAR SHORE ICE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WEB
CAMERAS AT INLAND SITES CONTINUE TO DISPLAY FINE CLEAR
WEATHER...AT THE SAG RIVER HIGHWAY CAMP...IVOTUK...ATQUASUK AND
UMIAT. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECASTS FOR THE INLAND AREAS OF THE
NORTH SLOPE ARE FOR MORE CLEAR WEATHER. THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA HAS BEEN VERY VERY STEADY. THE EAST WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LOOK LIKE THEY WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE OPEN LEADS FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG...SO THE HEIGHTS OF CLOUD BASES THERE COULD WELL LOWER
THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD THUS PREVAIL OVER ALL OF THE REALM EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY AND NORTON SOUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
70 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR REMAIN FAR AWAY IN
TIME.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL DRY AND BREEZY IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY
SO RED FLAGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT. INCREASED HUMIDITY COMING IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO END THIS. SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY. THE ALASKA LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM RECORDED 36
STRIKES AROUND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY YESTERDAY. THE FOCUS FOR
TODAYS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...QUIET...SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO BE SLOW. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT
3 DAYS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY BRING UP FLOWS IN AREA
RIVERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.
&&

TF MAY 07