High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
353 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PROGS AGREE WELL IN THE
HANDLING OF THE MAJOR FEATURES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERIOR.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY BY 18Z MONDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS
OVER THE INTERIOR. A DEEP UPPER LOW...ABOUT 520 DAM...
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING BY 18Z MONDAY.

A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR DALL POINT EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVING TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 06Z
SUNDAY...MOVING TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE AND WEAKENING BY
06Z MONDAY. LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL BE 980-985 MB.
WITH THIS SYSTEM...TIDES IN NORTON SOUND ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MORE THAN 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS
25-30 KT WILL PERSIST OVER NORTON SOUND THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY SHORT FETCH HIGH SEAS WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
SEAS IN NORTON SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT 6-7 FEET.

A DEEPER LOW...AROUND 970 MB...WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES
OVER PKZ210 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND OVER
PKZ200 MONDAY NIGHT. TIDES IN NORTON SOUND WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CURRENT MODEL RUN INDICATING SURGE
OF 2-2.5 FEET. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS STORM...SEA HEIGHTS IN
NORTON SOUND WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHORT FETCH BUT WILL BE
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...CURRENT ESTIMATE
IS FOR MAX SEAS OF 7-9 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTON SOUND. OVER PKZ210...EASTERLIES TO 40-45 KT ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH SE WINDS 25-35 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS OF 15-18 FEET SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND
PRONE AREAS OF AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226 THROUGH TONIGHT.
GOOD UPPER AIR SUPPORT WITH S-SW WINDS 40-50 KT PROGGED
AT 800-850 MB.

SREF INDICATING 12 HR POPS 70 TO 100 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.
MINIMUM DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35F...AND THIS
WOULD REQUIRE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70F TO
LOWER THE HUMIDITY TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS. MINIMUM RH IN
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO 35 PERCENT...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH INSTEAD OF UPGRADING TO RED FLAG.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AKZ223.
MINIMUM RH IN THE INTERIOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 40-45 PERCENT.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH EXPECTED IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES TODAY...
LOCAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHING SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF SEP 07