Gale Warning 68, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM ADT THU OCT 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA WITH
RIDGE OVER NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN ALASKA. COMPLEX LOW OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TO BECOME A TROUGH FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO KODIAK ISLAND 00Z
MON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE PRIBILOFS TO BRISTOL BAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NOME TO FAIRBANKS TO NORTHWAY
00Z SAT AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.

SURFACE...980 MB LOW 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL
SPLIT WITH A PORTION MOVING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WHILE THE
REMAINDER BECOMES A 994 MB LOW 100 WEST OF NOME 00Z SAT. OCCLUSION
FROM LOW TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TO KODIAK MOVING NORTH AND AT 00Z SAT
FROM LOW WEST OF NOME TO 100 MILES SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE TO 1007 MB
LOW NEAR FORT YUKON. OCCLUSION THEN DISSIPATING WITH TROUGH FROM
POINT HOPE TO NOME TO EMMONAK 00Z SUN. 1026 MB HIGH 400 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BARROW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.

MODELS...WRF/NAM INITIALIZED TOO WARM OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PERSISTS IN WARM AIR OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF AREA. WHILE SOME
WARMUP IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF BROOKS RANGE...GFS TEMPS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE AT VALLEY LEVELS.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OCCLUSION AND BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING. VISIBILITIES REMAINING
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. STRATUS PERSISTING. HIGHER CLOUDS FROM
OCCLUSION MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT DYNAMICS TOO WEAK
TO BRING MEASURABLE SNOW NORTH OF BROOKS RANGE BEFORE OCCUSION
DISSIPATES.

WESTERN ALASKA...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AHEAD OF OCCLUSION WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND IT. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 211 AND
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT FOR ZONE 213. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 215 AND SOUTHERN 212 SHOULD EXPIRE LATER TONIGHT AS WARM
AIR WITH OCCLUSION DIMINISHES AND BETTER MIXING OCCURS. WIND
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT SOUTH OF SEWARD PENINSULA AND
DIMINISHING OVER NORTHERN ZONES EARLY FRI. SOUTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT NEAR AND BEHIND OCCLUSION
SOUTH OF BERING STRAIT AND TURNING SHOWERY. ZONES 207-209 AND
NORTHERN 210 REMAINING AS SNOW AS OCCLUSION APPROACHES.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...CHINOOK WINDS OVER ALASKA RANGE
DIMINISHING FRI AM AND PROTECTING MOST SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT FROM
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI ZONES
225 AND 226 SOUTHERN ENDS IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUSION. SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER ZONES 219 AND EASTERN 218 OVERNIGHT. AS LOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND
BECOMES SOUTHWEST BEHIND OCCLUSION...EXPECT SOME SNOW FRIDAY ZONES
219 221 AND EASTERN 218 AND 220...WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW REST OF
EASTERN INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ215.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JL OCT 07