Gale Warning 55, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFG 252118
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
118 PM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-261400-
118 PM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 980 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
NORTHEAST CAPE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AS A 998 MB LOW BY 10AM WED
AND OVER THE YUKON DELTA AS A 1004 MB WED NIGHT. A 1026 MB NORTH
OF BANKS ISLAND WILL BUILD WEST THROUGH WED BUT WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ225-261400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
118 PM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-261400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
118 PM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-261400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
118 PM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-261400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
118 PM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-261400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
118 PM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CF/KS SEP 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 PM ADT MON SEP 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ONLY GRAZING
NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEK.

970 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT NORTH TO
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 12Z TUE AND WEAKEN TO 978 MB. LOW DRIFTING
EAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WED. 1029 MB HIGH NR 79N/122W DRIFTING
SW AND WEAKENING...TO BE A 1023 MB CENTER 300 NM NORTH OF BARTER
ISLAND BY WED AFTERNOON. ARCTIC FRONT FROM SRN YUKON WESTWARD
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THEN NORTHWEST INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. THIS
FRONT WILL DRIFT A BIT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF WX SYSTEMS THIS WEEK.
CURRENT BERING SEA LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY THU
AM. NEW STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN BERING SEA AND THEN MOVE
EAST...REMAINING S OF 58N THRU FRI. TIGHT LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM
NEAR 70N/120W WESTWARD TO NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS BY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS IS VERY UNUSUAL MOVEMENT FOR A CLOSED LOW ALOFT BUT MODELS IN
AGREEMENT...AND ECMF HAS DECENT CONTINUITY. NOT MUCH SURFACE
REFLECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL DRAG COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR
WESTWARD.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...MORNING SCATTEROMETER WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS
SHOW LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS BUT NO GALES. BASED ON PABA AND
PRUDHOE BAY TIDE GAGE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 KT...WE
WILL KEEP GALES IN MARINE ZONES 240 AND 245 AND WILL KEEP HEADLINE IN
PUBLIC ZONE 204. WINDS ON THE COAST WILL REMAIN BRISK EVEN AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS AS THE GRADIENT DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH. TEMPS COOLING A
BIT BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OPEN WATER AND LACK OF SNOW
COVER.

FOR THE WEST COAST...BERING LOW BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
TO SEWARD PEN SOUTHWARD...AND THIS WILL BE THE RULE INTO MID WEEK.
SCATTEROMETER WINDS FROM MORNING PASS SHOW THE ONLY GALES OVER
THE BERING SEA WERE W-SW OF THE PRIBALOFS. BASED ON THIS WE WILL
KEEP WINDS BELOW GALE FOR NORTHERN BERING SEA AND NORTON SOUND.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF ANY COASTAL HAZARDS TO A
MINIMUM.

FOR THE INTERIOR...RAIN WILL BE FREQUENT IN THE WESTERNMOST
ZONES...BUT AMOUNTS FAIRLY LIGHT MOST PLACES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WILL HAVE EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIP...IF ANY.
RAIN/SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE. SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY ON THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT NONE EXPECTED BELOW 2000 FEET ELEVATION. IN
ANY EVENT...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...THO IT WILL BE THE FIRST
ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON AT ROAD LEVEL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3
AND 4...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON MOVING NEXT BERING SEA LOW FROM THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU MORNING TO BRISTOL BAY FRI. SUCH A TRACK IS
NOT CONDUCIVE TO COASTAL HAZARDS FOR THE FAIRBANKS CWA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RT SEP 07