Gale Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFG 131022
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
122 AM AST SAT JAN 13 2007

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-140200-
122 AM AST SAT JAN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. A 992 MB LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH FROM NORTON SOUND SAT MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO 1010 MB AND
BE LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF KOTZEBUE BY SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ225-140200-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
122 AM AST SAT JAN 13 2007

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-140200-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
122 AM AST SAT JAN 13 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS EVENING. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SW. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-140200-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
122 AM AST SAT JAN 13 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS EVENING.
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-140200-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
122 AM AST SAT JAN 13 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS EVENING. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-140200-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
122 AM AST SAT JAN 13 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CF/TF JAN 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
107 PM AST FRI JAN 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...SYNOPSIS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
VERIFY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REPRESENTED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER
LOW SITUATED AND SPINNING OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST TROUGH IS
SEEN ROTATING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING A
994 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
SLOWLY FILLS AND MOVES TO NORTON SOUND SAT MORNING...THEN TO
KOTZEBUE SOUND SAT EVE. TWO OTHER WAVES...ONE RIDING UP ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN NEAR 55N/160W...AND THE OTHER NOTEWORTHY WAVE
FURTHER WEST NEAR 44N/179W. WITH THESE MAJOR FEATURES...HERE IS
HOW THEY WILL PLAY OUT IN EACH ZONE IN THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.NORTH SLOPE...MAIN FOCUS HERE TODAY/TONIGHT ARE THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN ZONE 201 WITH WAINWRIGHT CONTINUING WITH 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
45 MPH. POINT LAY NOT FAR BEHIND WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. EASTERLY WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 1044 MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA...WHICH THE MODELS
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT/EASTERLY WINDS. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND
MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO WANE LATE TONIGHT
LIKELY REPLACED WITH A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
ALONG ARCTIC COAST ZONES 202/203 UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN ZONE 204 THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
BEAUFORT SEA SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS TO RETREAT AWAY FROM THE ARCTIC SLOPE
WITH WEAKER WINDS...HELPING TO NEGATE ANY FURTHER THREAT OF
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS.

.WEST COAST...SNOW ADVISORIES POSTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT OVER ZONES
215/216...AND WILL CONTINUE THESE THROUGH 9PM AS THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHIELD EXITS THESE ZONES
NEAR THAT TIME. EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY FURTHER ADVISORIES AS THE LOW FILLS/WEAKENS WITH TIME THROUGH
SAT. APPEARS DRIER WEATHER ON TAP SUN/MON.

.INTERIOR...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IN RESPONSE
TO THE NUNIVAK LOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL OMEGA MAX BEING GENERATED
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE. RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN BANDS OF LIGHT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH AND THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY OVER
THE INTERIOR AS THE LAST UPPER WAVE MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
ABOVE SPAWNS A 989 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO
GENERATE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN INTERIOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

KS JAN 07