Gale Warning 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFG 211126
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
326 AM ADT TUE AUG 21 2007

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-220215-
326 AM ADT TUE AUG 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1022 MB HIGH 240 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST TO CENTER SOUTH OF BANKS ISLAND WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ225-220215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
326 AM ADT TUE AUG 21 2007

.TODAY...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-220215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
326 AM ADT TUE AUG 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT TUE MORNING.
WINDS WEST OF ICY CAPE BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER NOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...NW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-220215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
326 AM ADT TUE AUG 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. FOG.
.WED...SW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-220215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
326 AM ADT TUE AUG 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-220215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
326 AM ADT TUE AUG 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

DJH AUG 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1018 AM ADT MON AUG 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FIRST 60 HOURS FOR THE MOST
PART. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BASICALLY IS THAT THE NAM MOVES THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN BRISTOL BAY TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE MANY SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
GFS...UKMET...AND THE ECMWF. MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY IS THE GFS
BECAUSE OF CONSISTENCY.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
INTACT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR BANKS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE THE TIGHTEST OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
IS CURRENTLY FROM ABOUT WAINWRIGHT TO OLIKTOK TO THE EAST TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST NEAR POINT LAY WILL
KEEP WARM AIR ALOFT THROUGH 60 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT THERMAL
TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH 60 HOURS. THE NORMAL THERMAL
TROUGH WILL LIE THROUGH THE 40 MILE COUNTRY TO JUST SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS AND LIE LONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND THEN
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NORTH OF FAIRBANKS TO NEAR TANANA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR ALOFT IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
MAINLY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN BRISTOL BAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS CURRENTLY LYING THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAS REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL FOR COOLING HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER
COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR HAS FORMED OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE RIDGE POKING DOWN INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
LAT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO START PUSHING THE STRATUS AND FOG
OUT OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME STORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF AUG 07