Gale Warning 31, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
603 AM ADT FRI APR 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND GSM MODEL FORECASTS ARE VERY SIMILAR THIS MORNING. THE
MESO ETA MODEL DIFFERS SOME WITH A VERY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT
OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THE MESO ETA IS CORRECT ON
THIS...THE 06Z SURFACE ALREADY HAD SUCH A GRADIENT IN
PLACE...ABOUT 10 MILLIBARS GOING FROM HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF
THE BROOKS TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS.

ON THE VERY LARGE SCALE...A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ARE ROTATING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. AS SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM THE NORTH GULF
COAST TO THE INTERIOR THERE WILL BE ALTERNATE PERIODS OF CHINOOK
WINDS AND OVERCAST WITH SOME PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AND OUT ON THE YUKON DELTA ON SATURDAY.
SPRING IS HERE. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS INDICATE
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS...A
FORECAST WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE IS A LONG AND ENERGETIC
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLEAR UP TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
KAKTOVIK IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AS IS TYPICAL OF SUCH SYSTEMS.
THE MESO ETA MODEL FORECASTS IT TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE WEST WINDS FROM CAPE HALKETT TO KAKTOVIK LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

THE CURRENT HIGH ENERGY MAP WILL CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN THE
REALM...THOUGH NORTH WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FROM DALL POINT TO BERING STRAIT TO CAPE THOMPSON.

REGARDING THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
WATERS...THE OPEN WATER THAT FORMED NORTH OF THE ISLAND DURING THE
SOUTHERLY GALES LATE IN MARCH APPEARS TO HAVE RAPIDLY CLOSED UP
OVER NIGHT LAST NIGHT. THERE IS A PERSISTENT AND COLD NORTH WIND
OUT THERE SO OPENING LEADS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FIELDS OF GREASE ICE AND PANCAKE ICE SOON AFTER
FORMING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH GALES DALL POINT TO
WALES CONTINUING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORTHEAST GALES WALES TO CAPE
THOMPSON ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
QUIET. SOUTH WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE STARTING SOME OF THE DRYING
PROCESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW MELT IS GETTING UNDERWAY IN MOST OF THE INTERIOR...BUT THERE
IS LESS THAN AVERAGE SNOW PACK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

APR 07