Gale Warning 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFG 021300 AAA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
400 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-030315-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM
BARROW NORTHWEST BY SAT AM AND DISSIPATE NEAR PRUDHOE BAY SAT PM.
A LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF WRANGEL
ISLAND AS A 985 MB LOW SAT PM AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH AND WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ225-030315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-030315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-030315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-030315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-030315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
400 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

FEB 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1253 PM AST THU FEB 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY 500MB STEERING SLOW PERSISTS WITH RIDGING ALONG WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND A MEAN TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS
LONG WAVE ARRANGEMENT THROUGH WEEK.

NORTH SLOPE...WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN ARCTIC COAST IS
DISSOLVING...THIS WILL ALLOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE 1040MB
RIDGE OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC OCEAN AND THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA. EAST WINDS WILL THUS PICK UP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW...ALSO GALES OVER THE MARINE
AREAS FROM BARROW EAST. BEFORE THE BLOWING SNOW PICKS UP...THERE
IS PESKY FOG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN EASTERLY. A
BLIZZARD DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...ALTHOUGH A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY
FOR FRI AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FRI MORNING.

WEST COAST...ATMOSPHERE IS MORE WELL MIXED ON THE WEST COAST THAN
ON EITHER THE NORTH SLOPE OR THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THERE IS THUS
LITTLE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE EITHER RAIN
OR SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AS A SURFACE LOW NOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY
FRI EVENING. WINDS OVER MARINE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO A GALE
WARNING FOR AREA 210...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND...DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW. PUBLIC ZONE 214 MAY NEED
A WIND ADVISORY FRI...BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE
A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY.

INTERIOR...WARM AIR ALOFT HAS NOT MIXED DOWN EFFECTIVELY INTO
VALLEY BOTTOMS DUE TO LACK OF WIND AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE...WITH
RESULTING SPECTACULAR INVERSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 50F IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ETA MOS HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM...GFS MOS
IS MUCH BETTER AND IS PREFERRED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW
FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS REMAINS OF COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FROM THE WEST. THIS IS NOT THE BEST SCENARIO FOR
SNOW...AND THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TO BRING
850MB TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TOWARD MORE NORMAL VALUES AROUND -5C.
OTHER ISSUE IN THE INTERIOR IS SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH ALASKA
RANGE PASSES. WARM AIR SEEMS TO HAVE HINDERED THE DOWNWARD MIXING
OF WIND HERE AS WELL. MODELS ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN 700MB WIND
SPEED TO 50KT TONIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE...EXPECT MAX WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN ZONES 225 AND 226 WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE
WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

ES FEB 07