Gale Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1235 PM AST MON JAN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM NORTHWESTWARD TO WRANGEL ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE BERING SEA.

960 MB LOW NEAR 46N/166W AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN TO 972 MB
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND DEEPENS. MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR
ON HANDLING THE DEMISE OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD...WINDS OVER AKZ213-PKZ210 ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING.

THE NEXT LOW IN THE SERIES IS LOCATED NEAR 36N/157W AT 18Z
WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 970 MB. THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
GFS/WRF/UKMET RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW. GFS IS DEEPENING THE SYSTEM THE MOST. PROGGED
POSITION FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY IS NEAR 54N/169W WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 955 MB. PROGGED POSITION FOR 00Z THURSDAY IS
NEAR 60N/177E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960-965 MB.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A SHORT LULL...12 TO 24 HOURS...
IN THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM GENERATING MUCH STRONGER
WINDS. WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION OVER AKZ213 THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY...WE WILL EXTEND
THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213 TO THAT TIME.

IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...MODERATELY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND MOVE EASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MAX OUT
AT 1045-150 MB WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST TUESDAY...EXPANDING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE EASTERLY GALES AND VERY
LIKELY WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ISABEL AND WINDY
PASSES...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO DEVELOPMENT OF A LEESIDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING AKZ213.

GALE WARNING AKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. &&

RF JAN 07