Brisk Wind Advisory 96, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
243 AM ADT THU APR 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH FIRST 48 HOURS. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS MOST RECENT LOW...ALTHOUGH ALL THE MODELS
WERE WAY OFF IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR WRANGLE ISLAND AND CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LOW HAS NOW DEVELOPED
INTO A CLEAR ARCTIC BOUNDARY AS IT HAS WRAPPED THE ARCTIC AIR BACK
INTO THE WEST COAST FROM BEHIND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FEED WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST AND JUST INLAND TILL FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS MEANS OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH MAYBE A FEW
AREAS PICKING UP LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY IN THE
ENHANCED AREAS THAT SPORT OROGRAPHIC LIFT..

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD COME BACK DOWN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE INVERTED TROUGH
FROM THE NEXT LOW POKES UP TO THE ARCTIC COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
ALASKA BUT PROBABLY ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BENEFIT FROM
THIS SCENARIO

CENTRAL INTERIOR WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST. CATABATIC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND AND EASTERN INTERIOR
TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE ENHANCE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO STIR UP SOME
DECENT EASTERLY WINDS PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW RH VALUES WILL BE SEEN OVER A GREAT PORTION OF
THE INTERIOR DUE TO CATABATIC WINDS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BUT THE
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CF APR 07