Brisk Wind Advisory 77, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 AM ADT MON MAR 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS. THE GFS
HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SO WILL FOLLOW THAT SOLUTION.

THE OBVIOUS SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IS THE DEEP
POLAR LOW THAT IS SLIDING A FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE ACTUAL LOW MOSTLY
STAYS NEAR 80 DEGREES NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND THE POLAR LOW MOVING SOMEWHAT
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...THE WINDS ARE GOING TO
INCREASE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TO MOST LIKELY GALES WEST OF
MARINE ZONE 245. WIND CHILLS ARE BRIEFLY AN ISSUE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST UNTIL THE CLOUD BAND MOVES IN AND WARMS THE
TEMPERATURES. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
ITS ORIGIN. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION TO PICK UP THROUGH SEVERAL FEET
OF ICE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE
ON THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT SINCE THE LACK OF FALLING SNOW EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BELIEVE THAT IT WILL NOT BECOME A
BLIZZARD EVENT. HOWEVER THOUGH PRUDHOE BAY AREA WOULD LIKELY BE
THE PLACE TO WATCH FOR THIS BORDERLINE EVENT SINCE THE WINDS BLOW
WELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST THERE.

THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN QUIET AND WILL BEGIN ITS WARMING TREND.
BUT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THEIR SEVERE WARM
UP AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SINCE THE RIDGE WILL MOSTLY B OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES RUNNING THROUGH IT...SOME
COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY SQUASH THE POSSIBILITIES FOR 40 DEGREES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOW HAS SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF
NORTHERN ALASKA ZONES. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 214 AND 215 MAY
SEE A LITTLE SNOW BUT NOTHING OF IMPORTANCE. THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF
WELL INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS OVER THE WEST COAST ZONES WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW SLIDES
EASTWARD THEREBY MOST LIKELY REMOVING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER
THE BERING STRAIT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF MAR 07