Brisk Wind Advisory 68, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1112 AM ADT MON MAR 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ITS BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT
CURRENT MODELS SHOW NO END TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR BARROW...ALONG WITH ITS CORE OF
COLD AIR ALOFT...AROUND -30C AT 850 MB...WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS MAY OCCUR
BY THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -20C TO
-25C...WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SINCE FEBRUARY 19...TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS HAVE AVERAGED
ABOUT 21 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR THIS
PERIOD...-18.7F...IS THE COLDEST ON RECORD.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY 12Z
THURSDAY AN ELONGATED 1040-1042 MB HIGH CENTER WILL EXTEND FROM
300 MILES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...
GENERATING COLD WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...AND NORTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE
PASSES. WIND CHILL WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR ISSUE FOR THESE
AREAS SINCE WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...EVEN 10 MPH
WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15 MPH OR MORE FOR ALL OR PARTS OF ZONES 201-202-203-
204-205-206-207-208...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THESE EXCEPT AKZ204 WHICH WILL BE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING SNOW. THE WINDS IN ZONES 201-202-207-208 ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING SO THE ADVISORIES
FOR THESE ZONES WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208

&&

RF MAR 07