Brisk Wind Advisory 67, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE BLOCKING PATTERN DOMINATING NORTHERN ALASKAS
WEATHER REMAINS UNYIELDING. 500/700MB PATTERN HAS CLOSED HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK...AND A
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA CENTERED ALONG 150W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS BASIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WORK-WEEK.

NORTH SLOPE...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH-LATITUDE POES SHOWS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ON A VERY DRY TRAJECTORY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN ZONE 201. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW IS TAPPING INTO THE TRULY CHILLY AIR OF ZONES
205/206. WIND CHILLS ARE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT NOT
QUITE THERE. GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
RADIATIONAL WARMING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT.
ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

WEST COAST...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE GROUND VERY EFFICIENTLY EXCEPT IN A FEW TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FAVORED
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR WIND
CHILLS. THERE IS A LOCAL WESTERLY ACCELERATION OF WINDS AT
DEERING AND BUCKLAND AS THE WIND HITS THE TOPOGRAPHY...BUT THESE
WINDS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY IN MARINE AREA
215.

INTERIOR...PESKY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE HAS ENTERED FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. RESULT IS SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN
INTERIOR AS WELL AS A MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
RADIATION EFFECTS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT POSSIBLE IN THIS
SCENARIO. WINDS ARE MUCH LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT THAN IN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO MODERATION OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAKENING HIGH
NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. BIG STORY IS
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -30C BY TUE. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FOR A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK...BUT
AREAS WHICH CAN REMAIN CLOUD-FREE MAY HAVE A SHOT AT NEAR-RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FACILITATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN CLOUD-FREE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ES MAR 07