Brisk Wind Advisory 52, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
201 PM AST FRI FEB 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES ARE COMING UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA DRIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FLOW OVER TOP OF ALEUTIAN
CHAIN RIDGE TO PUNCH THROUGH. ALL MODELS TAKE THE JET STREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHEAST TOWARD
ANCHORAGE. THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF OUR CWA ON THE WRONG SIDE OF
THE JET FOR MUCH SNOW..EVEN WITH THE DEEP WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER,
AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW LIKELY STARTING SAT NIGHT IN THE
FAR WEST AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY.

IN THE MID-RANGE..MASSIVE DIFFERENCES BEYOND TUE AS GFS DEEP LOW
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE BOTH ECMF AND UKMET HAVE MUCH MORE
RIDGING WITH LOW IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. 00Z CANADIAN GEM HAS
LEANS TOWARD GFS SOLUTION...THOUGH LOW NOT AS DEEP AND FARTHER
NORTH. HARD TO CHOOSE AT THIS RANGE..THO THE GFS SHOWS MAJOR
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS
LOOKS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH AT POINT
LAY..BUT ALL SIGNS SUGGEST THAT WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW WIND CHILL
CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SAT PXIS SHOW ONLY THIN SCRAPS OF
CLOUDS ALONG COAST. IN WESTERN ZONES...SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP STARTING SAT NIGHT AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER
OTHER SLOPE ON SUNDAY. EXCEPT BARROW WESTWARD..SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIGHT OR NON-EXISTENT.

FOR THE WEST COAST...OLD 1012 MB LOW PRESENTLY OFFSHORE YUKON
DELTA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE SAT AND EASTWARD THEREAFTER. DECENT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL BLOWING SNOW ISSUES BY SUNDAY.

FOR THE INTERIOR...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ENOUGH ON OUR SIDE OF
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
ALASKA RANGE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT EXCEPT IN SOUTHWEST MOST
ZONES...WHEN CLOUDS WITH THE OLD BERING SEA LOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
UP. EVEN WITHOUT SNOW MANY AREAS EXCEPT NEAR THE YUKON BORDER WILL
BE NOT BE SO COLD SAT NIGHT AS AIRMASS WARMS..AND SUN WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER. WEATHER THEREAFTER UNCERTAIN BUT IT SEEMS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY TO RETURN TO AS COLD OF WEATHER AS THE
PAST WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

RT FEB 07