Brisk Wind Advisory 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
135 PM AST MON FEB 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...KEY FEATURES TODAY ARE CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER CHUKCHI SEA/COAST...EXTENDING ESE OVER BROOKS RANGE TO NERN
INTERIOR...ASSOCIATED 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF PABR
EXTENDING SE TO ERN BROOKS RANGE...AND WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER SRN BERING STEMMING FROM FILLING 978 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR PADK.

MODELS INITIALIZE OK AND AGREE IN SHORT-TERM...BUT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM/ECMWF AND GFS IN HANDLING OF UPPER-HIGH
AND ADJACENT TROUGH ON IT LATE WED/THU/FRI. ALL MODELS SHOW FAST
SRLY JET FLOW BREAKING N ALONG W COAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
CURRENT SRN BERING FRONT SHEARS APART TUE/TUE NIGHT...BRINGING
ONLY SPARSE -SN TO ST LAWRENCE...WHILE UPPER HIGH ROLLS N AND E
TO JUST N OF PASC WED. GFS SLIPS AN UPPER TROUGH UNDER THE HIGH
W FROM THE YUKON...FIRST AS A TROUGH WED...THEN AS A CLOSED 522 DM
LOW OVER ERN AK RANGE/SERN INTERIOR 12Z FRI. NAM AND ECMWF EDGE
TROUGHING W FROM THE YUKON AS WELL BEGINNING WED...BUT KEEP A
WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER THE YUKON THU/FRI. EITHER SOLUTION WILL
BRING COOLING TO CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR AFTER MID-WEEK...BUT GFS
SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY BRING GREATER COOLING AND STRATUS/FLURRIES
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME PREFER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION.

OTHERWISE...LOWS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING N IN SRLY FLOW OVER BERING
WILL STAY FAR TO W...MAINLY JUST AFFECTING ST LAWRENCE AND BERING
STRAIT WITH ANY SNOWFALL WED THROUGH FRI. STRONG NERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...ALIGNED WITH GOOD 850-700MB ERLY FLOW...ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN ARCTIC
HIGH AND LOW(S) IN SWRN BERING. THESE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST WED...BRINGING BWA-LEVEL WINDS AND BLSN MARINE AREAS AND
COASTAL MARGINS...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR...INCLUDING HIGHWAY SUMMITS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

MAR FEB 07