Brisk Wind Advisory 137, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
501 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE
INDEFINITE FUTURE...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 130W AND MEAN
CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA HOLDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS PLOWING INTO SW ALASKA BEFORE
REACHING THE BERING SEA.

NUMERICAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC PATTERN...BUT DIFFER IN
THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...AT 00Z DIFFERENCES WERE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AS THEY FILL...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER NORTHERN BC AND THE YUKON. TIMING OF FEATURES BEYOND 60 HOURS
WILL BE DIFFICULT.

AT THE SURFACE...983 MB LOW 50 NM SE OF KING SALMON MOVING TO NEAR
UNALAKLEET BY 9PM WED. 994 MB LOW NEAR NOME MOVING TO 100 MN WEST OF
PROVIDENYA BY 9PM WED. WEAKENING OCFNT IN ARC FROM NOME-BARROW
MOVING NORTH AND WEST. A NEW LOW WILL CROSS KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PEEL OFF
NORTHEAST ON FRI ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS ABLE TO TEMPORALLY
BREAK THRU THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...1030 MB HIGH 400 NM NORTH OF
BARROW WILL PERSIST BUT DRIFT EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FAIRLY WELL
DEFINE ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT NUNIVAK ISLAND TO E OF
NOME TO POINT HOPE AND THEN NEWD WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH AND
WESTWARD...ONLY TO BECOME REACTIVATED FRI AS TROUGH PUNCHES THRU
THE UPPER RIDGE.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE....SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL ENSURE WINDS REMAIN
FAIRLY BRISK FOR THE INDEFINITE FUTURE. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR
TIED UP IN NE NORTH AMERICA AND SIBERIA...NO WARNING LEVEL PROBLEMS
EXPECTED.

FOR THE WEST COAST...WITH STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE
REGION...NO WARNING LEVEL PROBLEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL HERE THAN ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN ALASKA.

INTERIOR...RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THRU THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN ERODED AWAY. GFS
MOS HAS BEEN DOING TERRIBLE WITH IN THE CHINOOK AREAS...ETA LOOKS
BETTER...THOUGH NOT GREAT. WINDS WILL LOCALLY BE AT ADVISORY LEVEL
IN THE USUAL SPOTS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT
ON WINDS BREAKING THE INVERSION...OR NOT. TEMPS AT ELEVATION VERY
MILD UNTIL FRI.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RT NOV 07