Brisk Wind Advisory 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 152305
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
205 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-161415-
205 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM FAR EASTERN RUSSIA INTO
THE BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDS.

$$

PKZ200-161415-
NORTON SOUND-
205 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE.
.TUE...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-161415-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
205 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT MON EVENING.
.TUE...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...N WINDS 40 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-161415-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
205 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT W 25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE
ESPENBERG MON EVENING.
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE...EXCEPT W WINDS 15 KT
S OF CAPE ESPENBERG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-161415-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
205 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 40 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

KS/DJH JAN 07

000
FZAK52 PAFG 161201
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
301 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-170315-
301 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 972 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO NEAR SAINT PAUL
ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 981 MB LOW. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-170315-
NORTON SOUND-
301 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-170315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
301 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-170315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
301 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.TODAY...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-170315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
301 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CF/DA JAN 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
534 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A PAIR OF LOWS ALOFT HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND. THE
FIRST IS NEAR BARROW AND THE SECOND NEAR MCGRATH. A VERY SMALL
SURFACE LOW REMAINS JUST NORTH OF KOTZEBUE. THIS FEATURE IS NOT
RESOLVABLE ON THE MODELS. NOR IS THE SUPER GRADIENT WEST WIND AT
DEERING AND BUCKLAND WHICH ARE BOTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS NARROW
WESTERLY JET SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE FORMS WHEN NORTH FLOW ALOFT /WHICH
WE HAVE THIS MORNING/ IS BLOCKED BY THE HILLS OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. KOTZEBUE ITSELF ONLY HAS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF WEST WIND.

THE 00Z MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT EXCEPT ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST WHERE THE MESO ETA VERY WELL RESOLVED THE SMALL SURFACE LOW
ELONGATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST FROM KOMAKUK BEACH TO ONSHORE
JUST NORTH OF ATQUASUK. THIS FEATURE OFTEN APPEARS WHEN VIGOROUS
GULF OF ALASKA DISTURBANCES ENTER THE SOUTH YUKON TERRITORY. SOME
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THESE SYSTEMS IS TRANSFERRED TO
THE SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA AS THE PARENT MARITIME LOWS SHATTER
OVER THE RUGGED MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE MESO ETA
MODEL FORECASTS THIS WEAK ELONGATED LOW TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND FOR ALL TRACES OF IT TO EXIT THE SCENE LATE TUESDAY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE LAST TRACES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH YESTERDAYS GULF OF ALASKA LOW TO END OVER THE MAINLAND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TAP IS SOUTH OF THE END OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE GFS FORECASTS AN ENERGETIC BREAKOFF CENTER
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ENTER BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN
NORTON SOUND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THIS TRANSPIRES BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL BLOW FROM
BERING STRAIT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND A FAIR SIZED INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVER THE EAST MAINLAND A MODERATE
SOUTH CHINOOK WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME COOLING IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CHINOOK
WEAKENS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST AN ONGOING SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS INCOMING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THUS CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN
BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE. A RECURRENCE OF 40 BELOW WEATHER
MAY STILL COME THIS WINTER...BUT AT THIS TIME IT TAKES SOME
IMAGINATION TO SEE IT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST CLOUD COVER NEARLY EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE WEST BROOKS RANGE. A NEARLY PERFECT CIRCULAR AREA OF
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS...WITH A RADIUS AROUND 150 MILES...HAS
DRIFTED WESTWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND IS DIRECTLY OVER BARROW NOW.
THIS FEATURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT WAS
TRANSFERRED UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA ON SUNDAY.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST TODAY BUT CLEAR
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS OFFSHORE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTHERLY GALE GUSTS
BERING STRAIT DOWN ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.
&&

TF JAN 07