Brisk Wind Advisory 128, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND GFE MODELS INITIALIZED OVER ALASKA O.K. AND ARE
SIMILAR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THE WARM CHINOOK NOW OVER THE MAINLAND
WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW OVER THE INTERIOR AND MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONTINUE IN THE WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. OVERALL...THE MAP IS CLEARLY A WINTER PATTERN...BUT OF
THE WARM VARIETY FOR NOW. THE STRONG LOW NOW MOVING NORTH TOWARD
CAPE NEWENHAM IS FORECAST TO CHANGE COURSE AND TO HEAD TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS REGARD THE NAM
DOES NOT SHOW THE CROSSING OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BUT THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PATTERN IS O.K.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE ARCTIC COAST
AT MID DAY CAUSED A SHIFT IN WIND FROM EAST TO SOUTHWEST...BUT
THIS ALTERATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND EAST
WINDS RESUME THIS EVENING. IFR TO SOMETIMES MVFR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THERE INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THE OCCLUSION AHEAD OF THE BRISTOL BAY LOW HAS SPREAD A THICK DECK
OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH HIGH TOPS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR. SO FAR...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ALASKA RANGE HAS
GREATLY SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL PICK UP AS THE FLOW THERE CHANGES TO WESTERLY.

THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NOW EXTENDING FROM DALL POINT
TO KIVALINA WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS ON THE
BERING/CHUKCHI SEA SIDE WILL ALSO HOLD...BUT START DIMINISHING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE IS NO NEW BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...SO QUIETER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ240-PKZ245-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

TF NOV 07