Storm Warning 198, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 171725 CCB
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
750 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 973 MB LOW NEAR KISKA MOVES TO 160 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA TUE
AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS TO 981 MB. A STRENGTHENING 981 MB LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST TO 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF AMCHITKA LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-180300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-180300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-180300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
750 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW WIND 55 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-180300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 180017
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WEAKENS TO 988 MB TUE NIGHT 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND 
THEN WEAKENS FURTHER TO 993 MB 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WED
AFTERNOON. A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON 100 NM SOUTHEAST 
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 993 MB.

$$

PKZ150-181500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-181500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-181500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-181500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-181500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-181500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-181500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-181500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-181500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-181500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-181500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-181500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON DEC 17 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
419 AM AST MON DEC 17 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN OMEGA BLOCK PERSISTS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LOW IS THE STRONGEST
FEATURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW HAS STORM
FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED NEAR KISKA MOVING NORTH. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE IS A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
DRIFTING SOUTH AT THE MOMENT...BUT OVERALL IT IS NOT MOVING A WHOLE
LOT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW IS OFFSHORE AND IN THE
PANHANDLE. VERY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE MAINLAND AND THE
WESTERN GULF WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST GULF COAST
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE REALLY HURTING OVERALL. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE WINNER
SO FAR IN THE MODEL WARS REGARDING THE STRONG LOW NEAR KISKA THIS
MORNING...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. GFS AND
NAM/WRF CONTINUE TO TAKE THIS LOW NORTHWEST TOWARD KAMCHATKA...WHILE
THE ECMWF/UKMET HANG THE LOW BACK INTO THE BERING NORTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SINCE THE GFS 24 TO 36 HOURS AGO WAS RIGHT ON THE
POSITION OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...IT IS THE LOGICAL CHOICE FOR ITS
PROGRESSION. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BIG LOW
TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH FASTER WITH THIS LOW. THE NAM/WRF IS
THE SLOWER OUTLIER...BUT EVEN IT IS TRENDING FASTER TRYING TO CATCH
UP WITH ALL THE OTHER MODELS. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...THE
MODELS GET REALLY UGLY...THUS FORECASTING ANY PARTICULAR LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BASICALLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.

THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE IN THE EAST REGARDING THE DETAILS
OF THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...BUT THE OVERALL
EFFECT OF THESE DETAILS ON THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MINOR. THE MAIN
MODEL CONCERN FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE COMPLEX LOW CAN BRING ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL AND WHEN
EXACTLY THIS WILL OCCUR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. THE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE GULF LOW DRIFTS A LITTLE
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT THE WINDS WILL PICK BACK
UP A LITTLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK A LITTLE
CLOSER. SHOWERS FROM THE GULF LOW MAY GRAZE THE COAST FROM CORDOVA
TO VALDEZ TO THE EASTERN KENAI...BUT NOTHING MAJOR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST...AND
COUPLED WITH THE WINDS THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WOULD OTHERWISE. STILL...WITH THE AIRMASS BEING SO COLD
ANYWAY...MANY INLAND AREAS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO IF THEY HAVE NOT
ALREADY IN THIS COLD SPELL.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
QUIET AND VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL PERSIST...BUT AREAS FURTHER WEST WILL BEGIN TO SEE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN. AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EAST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME
SCARILY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW -40F
IN PLACES.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
TWO STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE
IS NEAR KISKA THIS MORNING...BRINGING SOLID STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
REGION AND RAIN AND SNOW. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD
KAMCHATKA AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVES UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING OR SO
AND THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FROM THE PRIBILOFS AND UNIMAK PASS EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE
COMMONALITY AMONG THE MODELS IS THE BREAKDOWN OF THE EASTERN BERING
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS EAST INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH PROBABLY SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE. SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO MOST
OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AT SOME POINT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 175 176 411 412 413.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 121 129 130 132 150 172 185 352.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONES 121 125 129 130 132 138
         140 141 150 160 165 180 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY DEC 07