Storm Warning 195, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170021 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO 200 NM
WEST OF SITKA TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. LOCAL FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. LOCAL FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
GUSTS TO 60 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR BAYS AND
PASSES. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SAT DEC 15 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FAIRLY STABLE UPPER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER ALASKA WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST BERING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AN UPPER TROUGH FROM NORTH OF BARROW TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC CROSSING OVER BARROW
SUN NIGHT.  THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR ALASKA BY
TUE CAUSING THE TROUGH TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH AN UPPER HIGH CUTTING OFF JUST WEST
OF ANADYR BY LATE MON AND WESTERLIES BREAKING THROUGH UNDER THE HIGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY TUE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.  DIFFERENCES SHOW UP
MON IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT LOW NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS LATE MON WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN AND STRETCHES IT OUT ALONG 50N. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UKMET
SOLUTION AS IT IS A BETTER FIT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...
COLD AND LOCALLY WINDY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY.
SLOW COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WILL
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXPECT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM  SOUTH OF CHIGNIK
NORTHEAST TO KENNEDY ENTRANCE. MANY OTHER AREAS OF IN CHANNELED
TERRAIN SUCH AS RESURRECTION BAY WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AS
WELL. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MANY AREAS NEAR
SHORE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SETUP FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS
SOUTH CENTRAL...EXCEPT THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
SOUTH CENTRAL BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS TO THE WEST OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE. A MODERATELY
STRONG FRONT IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
TODAY BRINGING GALES AND RAIN...OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. THIS FRONT
WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND STALL SUNDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
LIKELY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER AIR FLOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THINGS GET MORE
UNCERTAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS INDICATE RETROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ALASKA TROUGH TO THE EASTERN BERING BY FRI AND BUILDING
AN UPPER RDIGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. IF CORRECT THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND WETTER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM  130 352
         GALE  121 129 132 138 150 155 165 172 175 176 185 351 411
                 412 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY  121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150
                 160 165 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH DEC 07