Storm Warning 168, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 240006
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 961 MB LOW NEAR 54N 142W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR SITKA SUNDAY
EVENING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 49N 173W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR
SEWARD AT 987 MB MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 241216
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST MON DEC 24 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR 54N 155W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING
TO 989 MB NEAR 59N 143W TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE
INLAND AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST.
$$

PKZ351-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST MON DEC 24 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT SHIFTING TO W 35 TO 55 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST MON DEC 24 2007

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW TO NW WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.

.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 250046
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST MON DEC 24 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 57N 153W WILL WEAKEN TO 987 MB NEAR 59N 142W TUE
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT TUE THEN DISSIPATE WED.
$$

PKZ351-251500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST MON DEC 24 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT SHIFTING TO THE W 35 TO 55 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. GUSTS TO 70 KT WEST OF 147W.
SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-251500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST MON DEC 24 2007

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW TO NW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. GUSTS TO 70 KT WEST OF 147W. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT. GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 251235
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 56N 146W WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB NEAR 59N 139W
TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY. A 967 MB LOW NEAR 56N 158W 
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING A WEATHER FRONT TO THE WESTERN GULF.
$$

PKZ351-260300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-260300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 TO 30 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 260045
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 57N 140W WILL WEAKEN TO 1005 MB AND MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR 57N 135W TUE NIGHT. A 995 MB LOW NEAR 60N 146W WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1006 MB TUE NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE WED
MORNING. A 971 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NEAR
58N 155W WITH A 969 MB CENTER THU AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTH THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 28
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 261246
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST WED DEC 26 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1005 MB NEAR 59N 150W WILL DISSIPATE BY WED EVENING. 
A 963 MB LOW OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN ALASKA AND DISSIPATE BY THU NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL PASS OVER KODIAK ISLAND THU MORNING THEN BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST WED DEC 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST WED DEC 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL WILL BE USED FOR SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS POSITION
AND PRESSURE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUN EVENING. LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON THESE FEATURES AND THE NAM IS WITHIN THE BALL
PARK. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION IN CURRENT GRIDS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

970S LOW CENTER OVER BRISTOL BAY WAS INITIALIZED WELL BY THE GFS40
WITH VERIFICATION FROM THE PAKN RADAR. THIS CENTER WILL MOVE OFF
TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TROUGH OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. EAST
AND SOUTH ADVANCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT
WITH OPEN CELL CU WHICH HAS SPREAD FROM THE BERING SEA TO OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS/AK PEN AND SOUTH. A SECONDARY LOW CENTER LIKELY TO
FORM SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND BE CARRIED NE TO OVER THE EASTERN KENAI
PEN/WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUN AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ON
BACKSIDE OF CENTER LIKELY TO FOLLOW FROM THE SW. STRONG PRESSURE
RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG SW
WINDS OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT AND COOK INLET SUN. RIDGE BUILDS AND
CONTINUES EAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS DEVELOPING NPAC LOW MOVES TO
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/WESTERN AK PEN. THIS CENTER WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 970S SUN NIGHT. POSITION SUN NIGHT AT 12Z
WOULD PUT THIS CENTER JUST SW OF SAND POINT. CONCERN IS THAT AS
CENTER TRAVELS SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR SUN EVENING...THAT SHORT
DURATION BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP OVER UNALASKA. FOR NOW
LOOKING AT A WATCH FOR THIS REGION. THIS CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND MON AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS. SECONDARY CENTER LIKELY TO FORM
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND MOVE TO SHELIKOF STRAIT MON AFTERNOON. THIS
CENTER THEN MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND WEAKENS TUE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MON AFTERNOON AND
SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND TUE. NEXT BIG STORM
ROLLS UP TO SW OF UNALASKA TUE AFTERNOON.

.EAST...SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED ALONG COASTS...WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF TONIGHT. GAP WINDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SETTLE
DOWN TONIGHT AS BRISTOL BAY LOW SHIFTS NW AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER SHOT
AT SNOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUN AS LOW MOVES TO OVER THE WESTERN
KENAI PEN/W PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUE. THIS SYSTEM HAS FAIR POTENTIAL
AS SNOW PRODUCER FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WITH NEG TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE. DETRACTOR IS THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING
FAIRLY QUICK AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ON THE BACKSIDE. MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH SUN NIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL BUMP UP POPS AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS AND SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP ON NEXT RUN.

.WEST...MAIN CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH APPROACH OF NEXT STORM CENTER. SHOULD
BE FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW AND WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CENTER WITH
OCCLUDED FRONT. POSITION OF CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUN
EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 185.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 AND 138. SEE MARINES FOR UPDATES.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 07