Small Craft Advisory 987, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
346 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WHICH CROSSED THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LAST NIGHT IS MOVING
NORTH INTO NORTON SOUND AND WEAKENING. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT DECENT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE BETHEL REGION LAST NIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...TO THE KENAI PENINSULA...AND INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF. SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND WIND CONTINUES THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO CALM DOWN AS THE
FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. OUT WEST...A
MAJOR SURFACE LOW IS PARKING ITSELF JUST NORTH OF ATKA. A FAIRLY
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING OUT EAST FROM THE EAST...AND IS
POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIAN OCCLUDED FRONT AND
THE NORTON SOUND LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS...THOUGH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
HAS BEEN FAIRLY POOR. FOR THE MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA...MODELS
ARE OKAY UNTIL A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THIS LOW
BUT STILL DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS TRACK. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT SO WE ARE FAVORING ITS EASTWARD TRACK OF THIS LOW.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...WE ARE TENTATIVELY FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
WARM...VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS PERSISTING JUST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERSISTING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING. THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES COMPLETELY ONSHORE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO END ENTIRELY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AS OF LATE HAS BEEN EXCESSIVE OVER COASTAL
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH AS MUCH AS ABOUT 18 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MONDAY
AT PORTAGE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME. AS THE
COLDER AIR WORKS IN LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME AREAS MAY
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND FOR SATURDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SENDS A FRONT WITH RAIN BACK INTO KODIAK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN...RETURNS TO
MOST OF THE REST OF COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL...PARTICULARLY THE
SOUTH/EAST KENAI PENINSULA...SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO
SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
THE ACTION IS WINDING DOWN FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTON SOUND. A COLDER AIRMASS
IS WORKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT REMAINS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT...BUT A LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN BERING WILL BRING BACK MILD TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN...INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
SATURDAY...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW HAS PARKED ITSELF JUST NORTHWEST OF ATTU THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW BROUGHT SOME STORM FORCE WINDS LAST NIGHT TO THE
WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS...BUT WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
MOSTLY WEAKENED TO GALES BY NOW. A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING EAST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS/BERING THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE PRIBILOFS AND
DUTCH HARBOR THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
FRONT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MOSTLY AS RAIN...AND
WHERE SNOW DOES MIX IN...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM. A NEW
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE JET STREAM FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON SATURDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY FOR THE EASTERN AND
WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS...THOUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION
MAY BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST IN THE BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. IT IS A TOUGHER CALL FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF SUNDAY WHICH WAS ALLUDED TO IN THE
MODEL DISCUSSION HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH IT...AND THIS
UNCERTAINTY LEAKS INTO NEXT WEEK. GOING TENTATIVELY WITH THE ECMWF
MODEL SOLUTION...THIS MEANS UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTING FOR THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND ADJACENT COASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONE 180.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170
         171 172 175 176 179 180 185 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY NOV 07

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