Small Craft Advisory 951, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS BEFORE
DIVERGENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING EASTWARD AND
SLOWER WITH THE DEEP LOW COMING INTO THE GULF IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR
PERIOD SO HAVE TRENDED FORECASTS IN THAT DIRECTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A STRONG
IMPULSE IS SPINNING UP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT IS
MOVING EAST RAPIDLY. WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
MOVING EAST SLOWLY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHERN BERING IMPULSE WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AKPEN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON TUESDAY...AS THE LOW CURVES NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE LARGE BERING LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ON THURSDAY A LOW IN THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL REACH THE COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE BERING/NORTHWEST GULF LOW AND EXPERIENCE
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS LOW WAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTH OF
JAPAN YESTERDAY AND THUS THE BOMB SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL FIGURING THIS LOW OUT...BUT LOOK TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD A POSITION IN THE EASTERN GULF WHEN IT IS AT ITS
DEEPEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WORTH WATCHING THIS
STORM AS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 07