Small Craft Advisory 938, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU NOV 8 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TO MID
RANGE. EAST BERING SEA LOW IS HANDLED WELL. PREFER HOW THE GFS IS
HANDLING THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT
THE FIRST WAVE TO IMPACT THE KENAI PEN ON FRI. THIS WILL TEND TO SLOW
THE EAST MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL.  MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING WITH PROBLEMS WITH INTENSITY AND POSITIONS OF
FEATURES IN THE LONG RANGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 960S EAST BERING SEA LOW TO BE FULLY
OCCLUDED. CENTER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND SAT MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE CENTER IS ALREADY
STACKED AND SHOULD START WEAKENING. FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 50N 152W IS
UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE KENAI
PEN FRI AND THEN INLAND. PRESSURE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER 980S OR
SO. THIS WILL TEND TO SLOW THE EAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SAME
BOUNDARY AND EVENTUALLY END UP OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT.
MODELS STILL A LITTLE ON CERTAIN ON THIS FEATURE...SO MAY HOLD OFF ON
ANY MAJOR SHIFTS. EXPECT CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST SAT AFTERNOON AS CENTER FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM...
.EAST...HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GAP WINDS OVER ZONES
101 AND 125 LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WARNING LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD END FRI MORNING...HOWEVER...WAVE MAY TEND TO HOLD WINDS OVER
125 A LITTLE LONGER. STRONG SE WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND
GENERAL WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD RAIN(SNOW OR MIX AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) ALONG WINDWARD/COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SLOW
PROGRESSION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT. NOT LOOKING AT
THIS TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN VALLEY SECTIONS.

.WEST...SNOW LIKELY TO MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE DELTA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MAY EVEN SEE BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
SHOWERS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
THE CENTRAL RULE WITH DECAYING LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA/BRISTOL BAY THROUGH SAT. STRONG W TO NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST BERING SEA/PRIBILOFS/EAST
ALEUTIANS...AK PEN THROUGH FRI. SHOULD SEE A SLOW WEAKENING AND SHIFT
EAST OF WIND MAX SAT AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...KEPT CHANGES TO A MINIMUM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORMS...155 AND 170.
         GALES: 120 125 129 130 132 140 141 150 160 165 171 179 180
                185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07