Small Craft Advisory 917, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL NCEP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE AND FORECAST TRENDS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT. PREFER HOW THE GFS DEVELOPS TRIPLE
POINT CENTER WITH LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA FRI NIGHT SAT VICE
SINGLE CENTER ON THE NAM/UKMET AND SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS...

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA CLEARS THE ALASKA RANGE
THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW
CENTER MOVES TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
DIMINISH IN RESPONSE OF TROUGH LIFTING NORTH. ALSO MAY SEE POCKETS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG UNTIL WINDS KICK IN ON THU. A 984 MB LOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON IS HANDLED WELL ON THE
GFS 6 HR FORECAST. EXPECT CENTER TO MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE KENAI PEN
THU AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN INTO THE UPPER 970S/LOWER 980S. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE KENAI PEN AND NORTH GULF COAST
THU AND MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS THU NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD GALES TO MIN STORMS LIKELY OVER
COASTAL MARINE AREAS. STRONG WIND HEADLINES LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU. EXPECT WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN ALONG THE COAST
WITH A MIX OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR AREAS THU. RESIDUAL LOW CENTER
HANGS BACK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION...IN PLACE MOISTURE...AND DYNAMICS WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING A FAIR TREAT OF SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THU NIGHT AND FRI.

.WEST...980S LOW OVER THE DELTA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH AS DEVELOPING CENTER UNDERCUTS THE AK PEN. EXPECT GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW OVER SW AK...EXCEPT SOME MIX OVER BRISTOL BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WITH SOME FOG THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDING ALOFT. EXPECT STRONG NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW CENTER AS IT UNDERCUTS THE AK PEN TONIGHT. BRISK NW WINDS
SPREAD TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND THE SW MAINLAND THU. RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT AND MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY/SW COAST
FRI NIGHT. STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI
MORNING AND TO THE JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
FRONTAL TROUGH. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT WITH LOW COMPLEX TO THE NORTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 150 GALES 120 125 130 132 138 155 411 AND OFFSHORE
GULF.

RMC OCT 07