Small Craft Advisory 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST SUN JAN 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE LOW THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA YESTERDAY
HAS NOW CROSSED INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE SNOW HAS MOVED INTO
THE BASIN AS WELL AND A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS WELL. A
BLIZZARD WARNING WAS IN EFFECT FOR THOMPSON PASS LAST NIGHT AS THIS
LOW PASSED EAST OF THEM.
A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN SOUTH OF SEWARD TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE TO NEAR CORDOVA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK BUT THE PLACE WHERE IT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND ITS PATH IS
A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY AT HIS TIME. EVERY MODEL RECOGNIZES THAT A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE BARREN ISLANDS TO
SOUTHERN KENAI AREA BUT EVERY ONE HAS A DIFFERENT MOVEMENT FOR IT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SOUTH OF SEWARD TO CORDOVA PATH SEEMS THE MOST
LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF AND COOK
INLET REGIONS AS COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE COPPER RIVER LOW.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES.

THE WEAK LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY PERSISTS AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. THIS LOW SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE
ARE STILL A FAIR NUMBER OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BRISTOL BAY AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREAS DUE TO THIS LOW. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS
ABOUT TO FALL APART THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THAT REGION AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 07