Small Craft Advisory 820, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING VERY WELL THROUGH 84 HOURS. EVEN
AFTER THIS POINT THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE DETAILS MORE THAN IN THE
BIG PICTURE. GFS NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION UNTIL AFTER
84 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A 974 MB LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND THE JET STREAM MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ARE THE
MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES TODAY. THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
EASTWARD COURSE AND MOVE ON SHORE NEAR THE HEAD OF KUSKOKWIM BAY
TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND TO CAPE SUCKLING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE JET STREAM MOVING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN RIDING OVER A HIGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND PUSH THE JEST STREAM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE JET STREAM IN RELATION TO
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL SPAWN A TRIPLE
POINT LOW EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
CAPE SUCKLING TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES
FRIDAY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
IS BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE BERING SEA AS
WELL AS A HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL DRIER AND COOLER
PATTERN SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA WILL
BRING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
WITH IT. THE HIGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THAT WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE
CLOUDS AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 195.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 155 165 170 171 172 180 185.
         STORM 160 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 07