Small Craft Advisory 804, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 292326
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL DISSIPATE SUN AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS THE GULF SUN AS 
A 986 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN NIGHT THEN MOVES TO
100 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-301400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-301400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-301400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-301400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
640 AM ADT SAT SEP 29 2007

ADDED MISSING WARNINGS

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...TWO MAIN STORM SYSTEMS ARE IMPACTING THE
AOR THIS MORNING. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT FORMED IN THE WESTERN
GULF YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE CENTRAL GULF. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THIS
LOW WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT LINGER ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST BRINGING RAIN...AS SEEN FROM THE MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR.
THE RAIN IS LIMITED TO IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. GALES
ALONG THE COAST HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
DISINTEGRATES AND THE PARENT LOW WEAKENS. THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW IN THE COLD
ADVECTION...INCLUDING A 75 MPH GUST AT KING COVE YESTERDAY
EVENING...HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER EAST
ALONG WITH THE JET STREAK THAT WAS ENHANCING THE STRONG WINDS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THAT REGION THIS MORNING.

IN THE BERING SEA THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS SEEN ON SATELLITE CENTERED
IN THE KARAGINSKY GULF EAST OF KAMCHATKA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...CURVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
BEFORE SPLITTING INTO A WARM AND COLD FRONT WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO THE MID LATITUDES. GALES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE WESTERN BERING ALONG THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY BUOY 46035.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THROUGH 120 HOURS THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPS EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND SUN NIGHT. THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF OR THE
NAM...IS PREFERRED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS
ARE STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST DUE TO THE
FORMATION OF A BARRIER JET GIVEN THE LOW BEING SITUATED SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. AFTER 120 HOURS...THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE ECMWF COMING MORE
INTO LINE WITH WHAT THE GFS HAD YESTERDAY MORNING...SPECIFICALLY THE
ECMWF IS NO LONGER BRINGING A MASSIVE LOW INTO THE BERING TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT FARTHER OUT
THOUGH WITH A LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AKPEN FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER/STRONGER IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF...
HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS UPON EXAMINATION OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE. THEREFORE THE EXTENDED GRIDS REFLECT MAINLY ONLY A
NUDGE TOWARDS THE LATEST GFS RUN WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE MODEL
DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE OVER WHERE EXACTLY THE STRONG WINDS WITH
THE LOW WILL BE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A POWERFUL JET STREAK DRIVING INTO THE UPSTREAM
SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL DIG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EQUATORWARD AND PUSH IT EAST...MOVING THE SURFACE LOW AWAY FROM
SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY THIS EVENING
THOUGH AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE Y-K DELTA TRANSLATES
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE FRONT FROM THE LOW IN THE BERING ARRIVES IN
THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS PROGGED
TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
STAY FAR ENOUGH OUT IN THE GULF THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE GALES
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE
BERING STARTS TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY AND AS IT DOES SO A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE END RESULT OF ALL
THIS IS CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.

MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IN THE BERING MOVES ASHORE TONIGHT
BRINGING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY AS
WELL AS THE AKPEN WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PROLONGED STRONG
WESTERLIES MAY PILE ENOUGH WATER INTO BRISTOL BAY TO NECESSITATE A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY. IN ADDITION STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE ON THE
AKPEN ONCE AGAIN AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINES WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A JET STREAK ALOFT...HOWEVER THE MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THIS TIME ALONG WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERLY POSITION OF THE JET SHOULD KEEP GAP WINDS FROM BEING QUITE
AS STRONG THIS TIME. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW TRANSLATE
EASTWARD AND INTO MAINLAND ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH MULTIPLE VORTMAXES.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...THE LARGE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TO THE AKPEN AND BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND GALES TO THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BERING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING SAT NIGHT AND SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG WESTERLY GALES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE WESTERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF
MAINLAND ZONES BY WED AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE BERING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER THE COOLING WILL
BE TEMPERED AT LEAST DURING THE DAY BY THE SUNNY WEATHER THAT WILL
COME WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS COOLER AND DRIER REGIME
REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND AND RAIN TO THE REGION.
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE HOWEVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL SEE MORE
RAIN AND WIND BY TUE AS ANOTHER LOW SKIRTS ALONG THE CHAIN ALONG THE
POLAR SIDE OF THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN THE GULF OF
ALASKA/SOUTHCENTRAL BY NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM,

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ARRR SEP 07