Small Craft Advisory 769, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT TUE SEP 18 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH EVEN THE
NAM HAVING LITTLE DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN JUST PAST 100 HOURS...MAINLY
WITH WHERE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ENDS UP.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE GFS FOR THE WESTERN DOMAIN. FOR THE EASTERN
DOMAIN...PREFER THE NAM DUE TO SUPERIOR TERRAIN INFLUENCED SURFACE
FEATURES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG 150 WEST LONGITUDE...WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY (CONSOLIDATED) JET
POINTED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE EXPECTED TO SEPARATE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALLOWING FOR LESS VIGOROUS SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...MAIN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECTED WITH A
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT (WHERE COLD...WARM...AND OCCLUDED FRONTS
MEET). AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM CORDOVA THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM...WITH A HIGH WIND
WARNING IN THE LATTER AREA.

SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA...DEEP LOW WILL FILL AND MOVE NORTH DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR DAYS THREE AND FOUR AS THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS SPLIT AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE MAIN LAND. A
POSSIBLE LARGE BERING STORM FOR DAYS FIVE AND SIX (SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY)...BUT BY THIS TIME THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 125 129 130 140 150 155 160 165
                      170 171 172 175 176 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 07