Small Craft Advisory 763, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON SEP 17 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...A VERY INTENSE WIDE-REACHING LOW IN THE SW BERING
SEA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS
INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW AND HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH ITS INTENSITY AND TRACK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PLENTY OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NE TOWARD ST. MATTHEW
ISLAND BY WED MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONE 187 STILL LOOKS
REACHABLE AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE CHAIN WEST OF ADAK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND AK PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSES BY. WARNING LEVELS WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT GUSTS TO NEAR
60 MPH THROUGH N-S ORIENTED GAPS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WAVES TO STACK UP
LEADING TO A POTENTIAL BEACH EROSION ISSUE ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WED
AS STORM SURGE MODELS INDICATE TIDES OF 2 FT OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE BEHIND
THE LOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WHILE SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BASK IN PLENTY OF RAIN.

FURTHER EAST...THE FRONT FROM THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL APPROACH
KODIAK ISLAND LATER TONIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST LATE TUE.
PLENTY OF WIND CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH E-W GAPS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE EVENING AS
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HINT AT A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER. THIS COUPLED WITH A JET STREAK
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS THROUGH
PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM UP TO 65 MPH. WARNING LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER DUE TO THE PARENT LOW BEING SO FAR WEST.
THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON WED AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE WSW.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS THE STEERING FLOW
JUST DOESNT SLOW DOWN. STEADY PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST IN EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS A WEAK LOW WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED NEAR YAKUTAT ENHANCING UPSLOPE FLOW. A SHOWERY
REGIME WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PARADE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE WITH FRONTS OCCASIONALLY BRUSHING
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187.
MARINE...GALE 120 155 160 165 180 170 171 185 179 175 176.
         STORM 175 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA