Small Craft Advisory 760, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS PRETTY GOOD BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST PACIFIC STORM. THIS
DUE MAINLY TO THE HANDLING OF THE TYPHOON REMNANTS IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH UKMET AND GFS ROTATE THE 970 MB FORMER TYPHOON
CENTER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH
WILL HAMMER ATKA TO UNMAK ISLANDS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS..AND THEN
THE PRIBILOFS MONDAY EVENING. THE UKMET IS ABOUT 5 MBS DEEPER THAN
GFS WITH THE MAIN CENTER THAT HANGS BACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
AMCHITKA. LOW TO ORGANIZE INTO A SINGLE AND INTENSE 960 MB CENTER IN
THE SOUTHERN BERING MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AREAS OF RAIN ZONE 141 COVERED WELL IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WEAKENING SURFACE LOW COMES ASHORE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CORDOVA AND YAKUTAT..CLOSE TO CAPE SUCKLING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DOWNSLOPING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND HAS PRETTY MUCH ELIMINATED MOST OF THE RAIN. SINCE THE
MOISTURE FILED IS DEEP THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF A SHOWER OR TWO
MAINLY ZONE 131 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS KUSKOKWIM AND SUSITNA VALLEYS COME DOWN TO ABOUT 1000 FT
THIS EVENING SO ANYTHING THAT FALLS FROM PAEC NORTHWARD WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. MOISTURE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS LIMITED TO THE
ALASKA RANGE AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. HOWEVER THIS SHORTWAVE COULD
LATCH ONTO THE MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE GULF STORM.
IF THIS HAPPENS THE THERE COULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE 145 TONIGHT WHICH IS MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN
ANYWAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND EVEN SOME SUN ON SUNDAY. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF 141. WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA CLOUDY.
THERE WILL EVEN BE A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...POWERFUL STORM IN THE SOUTHERN BERING MONDAY
EVENING TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE YUKON DELTA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS
HEAVY SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING A POSSIBILITY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA RESULTS IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A VERY TYPICAL MID TO LATE
SEPTEMBER PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

PUBLIC...POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WATCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING.

MARINE...GALES 120 TODAY..130 THROUGH TONIGHT..175 AND 176 SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...SEE YOU IN APRIL.

DPERCY SEP 07