Small Craft Advisory 705, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 021140
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. A 983 MB LOW
MOVING ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AS IT MOVES TO THE SHELIKOF STRAIT
MONDAY NIGHT.


$$

PKZ120-030200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-030200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD.  RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD.  
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-030200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
SEAL ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-030200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-030200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-030200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-030200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-030200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-030200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT SEP 1 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...FLOW IS VERY LIGHT FROM THE EASTERN BERING EAST
INTO THE YUKON. HOWEVER...A STRONG JET STREAM IS PRESENT FROM JUST
OFF KAMCHATKA EAST TO THE SOUTHWEST BERING AND SOUTHEAST FROM THERE
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. BECAUSE THIS JET IS CURVED
ANTICYCLONICALLY...THERE CURRENTLY IS NOT ANY STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET. AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES IN THE BERING...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WEST AND SOUTH ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

THE PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF RUSSIA TODAY AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TONIGHT ALONG THE RESIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
AROUND ADAK. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS MORE STABLE BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MORE CONFIDENCE IS DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE SHORT
TERM AND EXTENDED. NAM/WRF IS STILL THE OUTLIER FOR THE UPCOMING
ALEUTIAN LOW WITH ITS TRACK BEING TOO SLOW AND NORTHERLY.
OPERATIONAL GFS STILL APPEARS TO TRACK THE LOW A BIT TOO FAST...BUT
OPERATIONAL GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT HAD BEEN WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL AS SREF MEAN AND UKMET. FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT GOING WITH THE SLOWEST AND FURTHER NORTH NAM/WRF TRACK. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER DEEP BERING LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
FOG AGAIN A PROBLEM THIS MORNING THANKS TO LIGHT FLOW AT ALL LEVELS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM BRISTOL BAY
NORTH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH A BIT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LIKELY BEING NORTH
OF ANCHORAGE. MORE STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE LARGE ALEUTIAN LOW
PRESSURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL EXIST SUNDAY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM.

BERING/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AROUND THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES EAST TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY. GALES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS LOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BIG ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
TUESDAY...WITH ITS EFFECTS BEING FELT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM
BRISTOL BAY OVER TO SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF COAST. A LARGE BERING/ALEUTIAN LOW COMPLEX
WILL PROBABLY FORM SOMETIME AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND
PERSIST. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO
CRANK UP FOR FALL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 170 171 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY SEP 07