Small Craft Advisory 697, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 290010
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A 1012 MB LOW NEAR KISKA WED AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
50 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 1005 MB.
$$

PKZ150-291400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-291400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-291400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-291400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-291400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-291400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.

.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-291400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.

.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-291400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-291400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING S 20 KT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-291400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO W 20 KT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-291400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-291400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 291150
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY A 1010 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. IT WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 1007 MB AND MOVE TO 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR 
BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-300200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-300200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-300200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-300200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-300200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-300200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-300200-
UNALASKA BAY
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-300200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-300200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-300200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-300200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-300200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
350 AM ADT WED AUG 29 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON AUG 27 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. THE NAM
FORECAST SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM THE MORE CONSISTENT
UKMET/GFS SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH GFS MODEL WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ANALYSIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST TREND. UPPER LOW OVER THE SE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
EXPECT CENTER TO DRIFT TO THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA RIDGE IS DAMPENED AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE BERING SEA THU AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN FRI MORNING. A SMALL
AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS PICKED UP WELL
BY THE NCEP MODELS. SAT PIC AND RADAR DATA SHOW WAVE MOVING INTO ZONE
145/111 THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE INDICATED
UNSTABLE AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. EXPECT WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL NORTH OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUE. CONDITIONS SHOULD STABLIZE SOME ON TUE AS TEMPS WARM
ALOFT. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND SETS UP TUE AND WED.
DRYING AND COMBINATION WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS AND FAIR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE FOR A GENERALLY WARM LATE SUMMER DAYS INLAND...COOLER ALONG
COAST WITH SEABREEZES.

LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTH GULF SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. EAST
TO NE GALES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL WILL DIMINISH TUE THROUGH WED. RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL BREAK UP AS FLOW SHIFTS NORTHERLY TUE NGT/WED.

.WEST...
UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES OVER SW ALASKA. UNSTABLE AIR SHIFTS EAST OF
THE DELTA TUE WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE LOWER LAYERS. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/BRISTOL BAY INTO
WED...STABILIZING SOME THU. SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SW AK WILL TEND TO
PROLONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUE. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA DRIFTS EAST OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SO EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO BE GENERAL RULE OVER
WATER AND COASTAL AREAS(PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT). WEAK LOW CENTER
MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. CURRENT GIRDS WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE USED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 138 AND 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 07