Small Craft Advisory 692, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN AUG 26 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NCEP/UKMET MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE GENERAL 300 MB PATTERN IN THE SHORT RUN.
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSING LOW CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND MAINTAINING GENERAL POSITION THROUGH
MID WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
SAME TIME FRAME. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DAMPING THE RIDGE
SOME AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU AND SOUTH
OF THE AK PEN FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...LOW CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF SAND POINT IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE
EAST MOVEMENT TO SOUTH OF THE GULF. UPPER JET IS ELONGATING FRONT
ASSOCIATED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW LIKELY TO FORM. MAIN CENTER
WILL ACT AS PIVOT POINT FOR TRIPLE POINT WITH GENERAL COMPLEX HOLDING
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WITH FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF AS FLOW SHIFTS NORTHERLY TUE NIGHT/WED.
WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUDIER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION FOR
MAINLAND LOCALS FOR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
WEST OUT OF CANADA. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
SOME SHOWERS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A FAIR CHANCE AT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS
OF ZONE 111 TODAY. ADDED LIFT ON MON SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR CHANCE
AGAIN OVER THE SUSITNA MON. EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MON AM ACROSS THE EAST...THOUGH WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE.

.WEST...UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES OVER THE SW MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OVER DAYS WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE STABLE WED AND THU WITH COOLING IN THE LOWER LAYERS. EXPECT LATE
NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG TO FOLLOW EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH
TUE. STRATUS MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEST COAST WED/THU AS
THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. CENTRAL BERING SEA RIDGE
MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY WED. EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO BE
THE GENERAL RULE OVER THE WATER AND CHAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 132 138 150.

RMC AUG 07