Small Craft Advisory 665, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT THU AUG 16 2007

.ANALYSIS...
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION WE HAD RECEIVED.
DO NOT SEE THIS GOING AWAY IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT. WE WILL LOSE IT
OVER THE WEST COAST AND APKEN. ELSEWHERE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO
REMAIN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A FEW MAKING TO THE WEST
SIDE OF THE KENAI. STRONG LOW WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WITH A
MODERATE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL BERING. GOOD PRECIPITATION
AND NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING. OVER WESTERN ALASKA...DRYING
CONDITIONS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SOME LOW CLOUDS STILL AROUND TODAY. WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION AND UPPER LEVELS...
GFS INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER MODELS A BIT OFF ON
THE MOISTURE FIELDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BERING SEA FROM INVESTIGATION
OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

MODELS HAVE MOVED MORE TO ONE SOLUTION TODAY. THEY ALL MORE OR LESS
TAKE THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF AND SLOWLY DRIFT IT TO THE
WEST FRIDAY ACROSS THE AKPEN. THIS WILL MEAN A MORE CLOUDY AND RAINY
PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE RIDGE
OVER THE YUKON WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO BUILD TOO FAR INTO ALASKA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A RESULT AND IS IMMEDIATELY PUSHED OUT SATURDAY
AS THE BERING LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY. THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
BERING IS THE LARGE LOW NEAR 48N 165E CURRENTLY. THE OTHER LOW IN THE
NORTHWEST BERING TO BACK TOWARD KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WHILE THE OTHER
LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY. THE TWO LOWS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING MONDAY. THE LOW TO START MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND SLOWLY
WORKS TO SOUTH OF THE AKPEN NEXT THURSDAY. A RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN BERING. AFTER SATURDAY...A PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL DUE TO THIS BERING SEA LOW ACTIVITY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...
WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH A FEW MAKING TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI. SKIES ARE
CLEARING TO THE NORTH BUT FOG TO LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE LOW TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW TO REMAIN THERE WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE KENAI AND KODIAK TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. A FRONT WILL MOVE TO KODIAK BY THIS TIME AS
WELL. MOST PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FARTHER INLAND. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKS AROUND THE
BERING LOW SATURDAY...MORE SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE GULF
WITH A BETTER CHANCE INLAND. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST
ACCOMPANIED BY THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO WINDS ESPECIALLY
THROUGH GAPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF SATURDAY AS WELL.

WESTERN ALASKA...
THE HIGH PRESSURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN
GULF MOVING ACROSS THE APKEN WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
BERING WITH MINIMAL EFFECT ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST IS THE EXTENT. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL MOVE
FARTHER INLAND. STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
APKEN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN IN BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

ALEUTIAN/BERING...
LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING WITH A MODERATE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING. THE FRONT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
FRIDAY THEN BACK TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...A LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA TO WORK TOWARD ADAK BY TOMORROW
MORNING. RAIN AND NOT QUITE GALE FORCE WINDS TO WORK TO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW TO CARRY TOWARD SAINT PAUL SATURDAY
MORNING. A MODERATE FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY A JET AND COLD CORE
UPPER LOW. THE LOW TO WRAP UP IN BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS
WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WESTERN BERING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
BETWEEN THE TWO...SOME MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LOW TO
WEAKEN OVER BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW MOVING OUT INTO
THE WESTERN BERING. THIS CREATES AN LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BERING WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE ON MONDAY. FOR SUNDAY...JUST
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND. THE BERING LOW TO DOMINATE
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND MODERATE WINDS AROUND THE ENTIRE BERING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE BERING LOW SWINGS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT INLAND AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN AUG 07