Small Craft Advisory 657, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 150014 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

UPDATED ZONES 120 140 AND 141.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1014 MB LOW NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WILL MOVE NEAR KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT
AT 1012 MB THEN TO 225 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1009 MB THU.
$$

PKZ120-151400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
415 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TONIGHT...WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. MIDDLETON ISLAND AND EAST...SE WIND 15KT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED...WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. MIDDLETON ISLAND AND EAST...SE WIND 15KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 4 FT
NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-151400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-151400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
415 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-151400-
KACHEMAK BAY
415 PM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE AUG 14 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SEEM TO BE
HANDLING THE SITUATION WELL. FURTHER OUT...NOT SO GOOD. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE GFS WANTED TO PUSH PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
ONE TO TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 06Z RUN WENT BACK TO
THE SLOWER TIMING...SO LEFT FORECAST AS IS AND ELECTED NOT TO USE
THE 00Z GFS BEYOND ABOUT DAY 4 (FRIDAY).

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A CLOSED LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS PASSED KODIAK AND HOMER...WITH NO RAIN AT
EITHER SITE. INDEED...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FIRST FRONT EAST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES.

THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THIS IS THE TROUGH PASSAGE PORTION
OF THE LOW...AND CONTAINS A NICE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENCED
BY THE 3300 FOOT DROP IN FREEZING LEVEL AT BETHEL IN THE LAST 12
HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING
A PROGRESSIVELY MORE SOUTHERLY COURSE AS IT MOVES TOWARD A TROUGH
OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE LOWERING 500 MB
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE GOOD CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. DRYING ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TO TAKE THE PLACE OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.

BEGINNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE LESS AGREEMENT
AND POORER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN BERING SEA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE RIDGE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITATION
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SUNDAY AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ON MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG AUG 07