Small Craft Advisory 654, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT MON AUG 13 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE 12Z
RUNS. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BUT NOT ANYTHING THAT WILL HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS BRING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SUMMER TO THE AREA TODAY. IN CONTRAST THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT IS BRING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND HAS A FRONT MOVING ONTO THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COAST. THIS LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY
AND KEEP MOVING SOUTHEAST AFTER THAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...HOT AND SUNNY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL MOV INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE BERING SEA LOW. SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY
AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE LESS FOG THAN THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS MOVE
INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY
AND COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ENHANCES LIFT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND IT. THIS
RIDGE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM OR STRONG AS THE ONE THAT IS OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM THE PACIFIC ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 07