Small Craft Advisory 643, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 072350
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THU.
$$

PKZ120-081400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-081400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ130-081400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 5
FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE AUG 7 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE RESOLVED THEIR DIFFERENCES FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z PACKAGE AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.  YESTERDAYS 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BUT THE GFS HAS COME BACK
INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE HAS BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE REGION THIS
MORNING.  THE STACKED LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM BUT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND AND IMPROVE THE WEATHER THERE.  BY
THE WEEKEND THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE
MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ZONE.  A LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION BUT THESE WILL TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND THE JET MOVE EASTWARD. BY TOMORROW
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND THE EASTERN ZONES CAN EXPECT GOOD
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

WESTERN MAINLAND...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN
MAINLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE DRIFTING IN THIS
MORNING OFF THE BERING SEA OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING...THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL.  BY THURSDAY THE TROUGH WILL
START TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BECOMES MUCH MORE OF A DIRTY RIDGE AND
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS.  THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAINY
CONDITIONS TO THE MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SOUTHWEST FLOW.  IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A
TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN AS WELL TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE BERING.  HOWEVER THAT IS FAR IN THE FUTURE SO PRETTY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF AUG 07