Small Craft Advisory 638, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON AUG 6 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART THIS MORNING.  NAM IS
STRONGER ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING.  THIS DOES NOT
SEEM TO REFLECT MUCH DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HOW QUICKLY THE NAM BUILDS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND.
HOWEVER THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER SO STICKING WITH THE GFS
FORECAST SYNOPTICALLY FOR NOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN A PERIOD OF TRANSITION NOW AS THE RIDGE IN
THE BERING STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE MAINLAND.
IN THE WEST A STRONG LOW IS MOVING UP TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA...WHICH IS PUMPING WARM AIR INTO THE RIDGE AND THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IT. THIS WILL HELP THE RIDGE BECOME LESS OF A DIRTY
RIDGE AND PROVIDE CLEARER SKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE JET ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP MOVE THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MAINLAND TOWARDS THE EAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE WESTERN COOK
INLET TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.  SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY LINGERS...A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND BRISTOL BAY REGIONS WILL HELP TO CONTINUE THESE
SHOWERS.  HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE
WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

OUT WEST IS ANOTHER MATTER WITH THE MAJOR LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA.  NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PLAGUING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TODAY.  THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER FRONT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE MAINLAND BUT IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY.  THE FRONT IN THE ALEUTIANS HAS
ALSO WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE REGION.  BY SUNDAY THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS
WAY ONTO THE MAINLAND BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 176 410
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF AUG 07