Small Craft Advisory 609, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
340 AM ADT FRI JUL 27 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THIS MORNING AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND AT UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE BERING AND IS THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA IS SENDING A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY. A STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND THIS LOW WILL NOT BE A PLAYER FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND UNDERLYING
SURFACE THERMAL LOW ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...
THROUGH THE WEEKEND A FAIRLY WARM CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY COME IN THE FORM OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN EXCEPTION IS
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS ARE PRESENT AS A RESULT OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN NORTHEAST FLOW. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT
NORTH FLOW TODAY TRANSITIONING TO WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND WEST FROM A LOW IN THE YUKON THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND TO THE KENAI PENINSULA. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WHITTIER
GLACIER WINDS COULD RESULT FROM THIS...BUT NOT MUCH MORE IN TERMS OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. KODIAK WILL ENJOY DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DOWNSLOPING WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THEM.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
COOLER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS SETTING UP FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PERSISTENT FOG AND STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST WEST OF BETHEL AND SOUTH TO CAPE NEWENHAM...WITH THE FOG
AND STRATUS OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT INLAND TO BETHEL AND SOUTH TO THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT AS WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS IS ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT
OF STRATUS AND FOG. WHERE THE FOG IS PRESENT...VISIBILITIES THIS
MORNING ARE QUITE LIMITED. A DEFINITE PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING
PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY THE WEEKEND. NOT SO SURE THAT THE
FOG WILL TOTALLY GO AWAY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TO
ADD INTO THE MIX.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. BY TUESDAY OR SO...A STRONG DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. OVER THE
MAINLAND...THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE BERING. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO
WET AND COOLER WEATHER ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF COAST AND BRISTOL BAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY JUL 07